📈 Market Sentiment & Technicals

  • $BTC sees a constructive bounce from $65k, needing to clear $70k for a retest of $75k. 1
  • US equity market stress is rising beneath the surface: the put-call skew in the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) is up to 0.39, the highest since the April 2025 market sell-off, indicating increased demand for downside protection. 5
  • Over the last 3 months, $SPX has consistently tested or traded below its 50-day moving average at least once every 3 days on average. 7
  • $VIX Crush Fridays” are back: today saw a -16% peak-to-trough drop, following last Friday’s -19% plunge. 9
  • Risk appetite is robust: the 10-day average notional options volume on S&P 500 stocks is up ~$530 billion, marking a 2-year high. 13

💡 AI & Technology Adoption

  • Current market models for new platform adoption are lagging; AI is embedding into enterprise workflows and consumer products at an unprecedented speed, far exceeding prior transitions. 2
  • Ondas ($ONDS) secures multi-million dollar NATO orders for its “Iron Drone Raider,” an airport-compatible system using “AI netting” for precise drone capture without communication interference. 15
  • Stargate UAE is poised to be the world’s fastest AI data center buildout, targeting 5GW of total planned capacity. 18

📊 Market Anomalies & Patterns

  • Critique suggests Mag-7 stocks will be bid up after capital flowed into overvalued consumer staples trading at 40X earnings. 3
  • Market logic is perplexing: strong earnings cause sell-offs (good news priced in), while weak earnings trigger rallies (bad news priced out). 4
  • The market needs a significant catalyst, akin to a “rocket engine boost,” following a successful SpaceX launch. 6
  • Historically, $SPY and $QQQ rally into Feb 14 (62% win rate), but the latter half of February is often the weakest period, second only to September. 11
  • Markets misjudged today’s CPI print; expect choppy conditions ahead for all assets as the “AI kills everything and deflationary” narrative battles the “Trump/Takachi reflationary” outlook. 12

💰 Investment Strategy & Valuation

  • True trading involves buying quality, staying humble, and accepting losses, contrary to the common perception of complex charts and constant stress. 8
  • Anticipating a market bounce, I’m eyeing aggressive plays on “Maggy 7’s” like $META, $MSFT, $AMZN with forward multiples at 21 or lower. 14
  • Forward PE and PEG remain valuable valuation tools for future growth, except for “monster stocks” like $PLTR, $TSLA, or pre-profit growth names. 19
  • Avoid concentrated covered call ETFs with few tech holdings due to risk; prefer broader options like HDIV, HYLD, or single-stock covered call ETFs for conviction plays (e.g., SOFY, HODY, PLTE, YTSL). 20

🏭 Specific Stock/Sector Analysis

  • $XLE short interest is at a decade high, coinciding with energy stocks breaking out. 10
  • $ONDS institutional and insider holdings surged to 57.97% (245,901,706 shares), up from 52.3% in Q3 2025, reflecting significant accumulation. 16

🌎 Global Capital Flows

  • International equity ETFs saw record inflows of +$51.6 billion in January, marking the 5th consecutive monthly increase and 17th straight month of inflows. 17