🚨 Market Overvaluation & Risk Warnings

  • $WMT valuation is stretched. Current P/E is 2x the Maggy 7 (ex-Tesla). This is 50% higher than its historical average. It’s the third highest P/E in 10 years; prior peaks in Oct 2018 and Oct 2021 marked reversals. 引用[1]
  • $VIX is acting abnormal. Post-NFP/CPI this week, $VIX didn’t crash. This signals persistent “risk off” sentiment. This anomaly suggests unseen market fear; a shakeout might be needed to clear vol. 引用[15]
  • S&P 500 internals show divergence. At least 115 S&P 500 stocks dropped -7% or more in a single day over the last 8 trading sessions. Yet, the S&P 500 is only down -2% from ATHs. This split reveals underlying fragility. 引用[16]
  • S&P 500 shows concerning parallels. Current market structure is similar to past “train wreck” scenarios. This suggests a painful unwind if history rhymes. 引用[20]
  • Market echoes history. An analogy exists between current market dynamics and the LTCM crisis leading into the Dot Com Bust. 引用[24]
  • Market valuations demand multi-factor analysis. Comprehensive models incorporate PE, CAPE, PS, Aggregate Positioning, and Expected Regression Deviation. 引用[25]

💰 Crypto & Specific Stock Insights

  • Ethereum shows major upside. A 130% bounce from here reaches ATH resistance. If Ethereum endures, $10,000+ in coming years is no fantasy. 引用[4]
  • $TSLA is a key play for next week. 引用[7]
  • $COIN saw a monster day. Up +18%, easily reclaiming its “triple bottom” after a slight undercut yesterday. 引用[14]
  • Big bear bets on $SMH. A $10 million March 390/370 put spread targets the Semis ETF ahead of Nvidia earnings on Feb 25th AMC. 引用[17]
  • $MAGS hit extreme oversold levels. The Magnificent 7 ETF reached its lowest Daily RSI since April 7th 2025, marking “tariffs crash lows.” 引用[21]
  • Uranium bull case boils down to one factor. Sustained demand, like from data centers, is the sole driver for uranium bulls. 引用[23]
  • $AVGO hit a wall. Dropped -6% after rejecting the 50dma resistance. 引用[27]
  • Institutional flip on #SOFI. Morgan Stanley (previously “sell” rated) increased #SOFI holdings by 33%, now holding 13,323,366 shares worth $348 million. 引用[28]
  • $COST momentum is strong. Just 5% from ATHs, mirroring Walmart’s relentless push. 引用[29]

💡 Market Dynamics & Trading Principles

  • $SPX Monday streak continues. Past 5 Mondays were “Green.” Next Monday’s holiday extends the run. 引用[10]
  • “Dispersion” is the theme of the year. Market character is highly fragmented stock performance. 引用[12]
  • $VIX volatility persists. $VIX touched ~19 almost daily over the last 12 days, signaling sustained chop. 引用[19]
  • $QQQ $600 remains a key level. Technical significance for $QQQ price action. 引用[18]
  • Trade with strict risk control. If you don’t understand options/futures, avoid them. This cuts 90% of trading stress. 引用[22]