💡 Market Strategy & Views

  • Entered coin/qqq puts as a hedge. 1

📈 Market Performance & Outlook

  • Bonds are crushing major indices YTD; $TLT +3.1%, $DIA +2.4%, $SPY -.2%, $QQQ -1.8%, a divergence not seen in ages. 5
  • Historically, $SPX drops 6%+ at least twice annually since 1996, barring 2006, 2013, 2017. Brace for volatility, unless 2026 bucks the trend. 6
  • $XLU is a pure play on long-term interest rate sensitivity. 7

⛏️ Commodities & Energy Transition

  • Gold closed at a record weekly high despite chop. Silver corrections are shaking out weak hands, rerating positioning towards patient capital. Near-term digestion is healthy. 2
  • Energy transition by 2030 needs 293 new mines. This includes 61 new copper mines (filling a 3.7 million ton gap from 22.9 million tons supply), 52 lithium mines (to meet 1.2 million tons new demand), 31 natural graphite, 29 rare earth, and 28 nickel mines. This industrial-scale buildout faces 10-15 year approval timelines. 3

🏦 Macro Insights

  • January US CPI data hints CPI is fading as a macro driver, its market impact diminishing. The CPI trend inflected late last year, aligning with expectations for inflation to peak and fall by late 2025 or early 2026. This drawdown is rooted in non-supply-shock cost increases and base effects. 4

🎯 Single Stock Deep Dive

  • Centrus Energy ($LEU) is a high-risk, high-opportunity play. Investors need extreme caution, a long-term horizon, and patience to ride the grind. 8
  • $ONDS shows a valid trend line with higher lows. Price is stabilizing at $9.12 near the 618 Fibonacci retrace, targeting $15.87 at the golden ratio upside. 9
  • $BABA back in the $150s? A reload opportunity could be brewing. 10
  • $COIN’s post-earnings rip, despite a massive miss/loss, is key. The stock’s prior collapse from $400+ to $140s likely baked in crypto market carnage and poor prints. 11
  • Robinhood ($HOOD) lacks fierce counter-fire for shorts. 12
  • $AMZN is on a brutal streak, down 12 of 13 days, hitting a historical low daily RSI and a 2.5-year low relative to $QQQ. The $193.06 gap fill is a critical level. 13

💰 Hedge Fund Plays

  • Soros Fund Management’s Q4 13F reveals a big bet against energy via $580M in puts ($XOP $415M, $XLE $163M new positions). The fund is pivoting bullish on AI/semis ($MSFT, $TSM increased holdings), unwinding $234M in leveraged China calls, and boosting regional bank exposure. 14

🤖 Tech & Societal Impact

  • The political impact of AI “agents” will be massive, amplifying polarization. Citizens are pushed to binary choices (e.g., immigration vs. abortion), overshadowing economic stances. Moderates lose ground; this pattern mirrors global trends. 15