Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group significantly upweighted AMZN by 2,121,391 shares, making it their second-largest position at 9.28% in Q4 2025. They also scaled into FISV, boosting holdings by 145.81% (1,305,000 shares), and added 24.66% to WTW (268,536 shares). This signals high conviction from a titan. 1
Stanley Druckenmiller’s approach emphasizes conviction-first investing: deploy capital when the theme is clear, then dig into details. I resonate with this, recognizing that waiting for perfect information often means missing the big part of the move, as with his $NVDA trade on AI conviction. 2
My current market perception is that “billions feel like the new millions” and “trillions feel like the new billions,” reflecting a shift in financial scale and perception. 3
Taiwan’s 2026 growth forecast has spiked from 3.54% to 7.71%. I link this surge directly to the AI export boom, reinforcing expectations for strong exports from the region. 4
$SPY is down 2% YTD, yet most of its top 12 holdingsâcomprising 42% of the index’s weightâare down far more, Walmart being an exception. My analysis suggests mid-tier components across memory, commodities, pharma, financials, and defensives are currently propping up the index. 5
$BTC broke past $70k. I’m calling for a retest of $75k next. 6
Apple ($AAPL) has reportedly conceded to Kioxia’s terms, agreeing to double NAND unit prices starting Q1 2026, with quarterly adjustments. I view this as a potential shift in pricing power dynamics within the NAND sector. 7
I found Claude Cowork to be incredibly powerful and efficient after trying it. My personal experience suggests I missed out by not adopting it sooner. 8
AWS CEO Matt Garman has signaled that AI compute capacity will remain constrained for the next couple of years despite Amazon’s massive $200 billion capex. The sell-out of servers suggests a continued need for capex expansion into 2027. 9, 10
My review of Goldman Sachs’ recent long-short pair combination for AI winners and losers reveals a solid logic: go long on companies with high business barriers that resist AI disruption or directly benefit from AI demand, and short those susceptible to automation. 11
ByteDance is aggressively ramping up its AI strategy with the launch of Doubao Large Model 2.0, featuring Pro, Lite, Mini, and Code versions. I note that the Pro model targets direct competition with GPT 5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro, indicating a significant play in the frontier AI race. 12
I see Palantir ($PLTR) as the critical infrastructure layer integrating frontier AI models into sensitive national security workflows, evidenced by the U.S. using Anthropic’s Claude AI via their platforms for the capture of Venezuela’s former president. 13
Anthropic’s CEO forecasts AI-driven robotics as a multi-trillion-dollar industry, driven by models generalizing in real-world scenarios. I believe robotics marks AI’s entry point into the $50T+ physical economy, impacting manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, construction, and healthcare. 14
Nebius ($NBIS) reported strong Q4 2025 financials. I am speculating if it can maintain its strong performance. 15
X is poised to roll out direct crypto and stock trading, a move I anticipate will intensify competition for $HOOD. This marks a pivotal moment for social finance. 16
X is set to launch SmartCashtags and direct stock/crypto trading within weeks, signaling a true social finance era. My key question is whether this involves integrated payment/wallet features or third-party partnerships. 17
Following X’s January 11th announcement about enabling direct crypto and stock trading, $HOOD stock has plunged 40% from approximately $120. I find this sharp decline too correlated to be mere coincidence, suggesting X’s market entry is significantly impacting $HOOD. 18