The market is at a tipping point, with Financials signaling critical levels at the 50 Week SMA, a pattern observed previously in the 2022 Bear market. 2
Despite persistent calls for market exuberance, Goldman’s U.S. equity sentiment indicator has dipped into negative territory following only a 2% pullback in “Spooz” from all-time highs. Current sentiment and positioning are far from typical bubble levels. 3
The market is “extremely split,” with numerous stocks hitting new highs while others simultaneously reach new lows. 4
Market psychology is inverted: extreme negative and bearish sentiment is surfacing after many growth stocks have already corrected 40%, not preceding the decline. 14
$WMT shows an unusual pattern of continuous price ascent (“mooning into perpetuity”) despite significant daily insider selling. 1
$NVDA could generate over $1B in revenue daily by 2028. 5
$MA and $V, key barometers of economic health, hit fresh multi-month lows, nearing their April 2025 Tariffs Crash lows. 9
$NVDA’s AI “monopoly” is built on a comprehensive ecosystem, encompassing hardware (GPUs like Hopper, Blackwell, Rubin), software (CUDA, TensorRT, NeMo), networking (InfiniBand, NVLink), and integrated systems (DGX, HGX). 11
Palantir’s 30% dip is consistent with a broader software sector sell-off, evidenced by Microsoft’s nearly 30% fall from its peak. Given Palantir’s beta is three times that of Microsoft, its decline is normal, challenging the “bad stock if it falls” retail investor mindset. 12
Energy stocks are staging a comeback, with Exxon’s breakout appearing to signal a broader sectoral shift, despite positioning still leaning contrarian. 15
Despite surging global copper demand driven by energy transition, the average time from copper discovery to production is lengthening, indicating a growing supply-side constraint. 13
For $BTC bulls, a push above the “blue box” towards $80k (bear flag pole peak) is crucial. A failed “dead cat bounce” could see the “green box” become the next key support. 7
The market willingly assigns current valuation levels; if perceived as high, consider waiting until the stock hits 20 before entry. 6
Michael Burry’s post-2013 investment performance has been lackluster, with a 3-year cumulative return of ~-40% between 2023-2025 due to excessive hedging and premature shorting, a stark contrast to his 489% returns from 2000-2008. 8
Market participants are willing to pay more for Palantir, implying a perception of higher value or quality, akin to choosing 5000-priced Nike over 50-priced alternatives. 10