📈 Market Structure & Sentiment

  • The market is at a tipping point, with Financials signaling critical levels at the 50 Week SMA, a pattern observed previously in the 2022 Bear market. 2
  • Despite persistent calls for market exuberance, Goldman’s U.S. equity sentiment indicator has dipped into negative territory following only a 2% pullback in “Spooz” from all-time highs. Current sentiment and positioning are far from typical bubble levels. 3
  • The market is “extremely split,” with numerous stocks hitting new highs while others simultaneously reach new lows. 4
  • Market psychology is inverted: extreme negative and bearish sentiment is surfacing after many growth stocks have already corrected 40%, not preceding the decline. 14

💡 Stock & Sector Specific Insights

  • $WMT shows an unusual pattern of continuous price ascent (“mooning into perpetuity”) despite significant daily insider selling. 1
  • $NVDA could generate over $1B in revenue daily by 2028. 5
  • $MA and $V, key barometers of economic health, hit fresh multi-month lows, nearing their April 2025 Tariffs Crash lows. 9
  • $NVDA’s AI “monopoly” is built on a comprehensive ecosystem, encompassing hardware (GPUs like Hopper, Blackwell, Rubin), software (CUDA, TensorRT, NeMo), networking (InfiniBand, NVLink), and integrated systems (DGX, HGX). 11
  • Palantir’s 30% dip is consistent with a broader software sector sell-off, evidenced by Microsoft’s nearly 30% fall from its peak. Given Palantir’s beta is three times that of Microsoft, its decline is normal, challenging the “bad stock if it falls” retail investor mindset. 12
  • Energy stocks are staging a comeback, with Exxon’s breakout appearing to signal a broader sectoral shift, despite positioning still leaning contrarian. 15

🌍 Macro & Commodity Outlook

  • Despite surging global copper demand driven by energy transition, the average time from copper discovery to production is lengthening, indicating a growing supply-side constraint. 13

🤖 Tech & AI Impact

  • Cybersecurity software is getting punished as AI is set to capture large parts of its value chain. 16

💰 Crypto Outlook

  • For $BTC bulls, a push above the “blue box” towards $80k (bear flag pole peak) is crucial. A failed “dead cat bounce” could see the “green box” become the next key support. 7

🧠 Investment Strategy & Psychology

  • The market willingly assigns current valuation levels; if perceived as high, consider waiting until the stock hits 20 before entry. 6
  • Michael Burry’s post-2013 investment performance has been lackluster, with a 3-year cumulative return of ~-40% between 2023-2025 due to excessive hedging and premature shorting, a stark contrast to his 489% returns from 2000-2008. 8
  • Market participants are willing to pay more for Palantir, implying a perception of higher value or quality, akin to choosing 5000-priced Nike over 50-priced alternatives. 10