đź§  AI & Tech Strategy

  • OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger joining OpenAI signals an intensified AI agent war in 2026, a brilliant strategic move by Sam Altman for OpenAI. 1

📊 Economic Outlook

  • The administration’s bet on disinflationary productivity appears to be working. 2
  • US new vehicle sales recovery is sluggish; despite a +2.4% rise to 16.2 million units in 2025 (highest since 2019), sales remain below 2015-2019 and 1999-2006 levels, only slightly surpassing 1986 levels. 3
  • The MSCI USA Index market cap relative to US M2 money supply hits a record 270%, up +120 percentage points since 2022, now exceeding the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by approximately 40 percentage points, signaling a historic market run. 4

đź’° Market Valuation & Investment Strategy

  • Upon SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk’s net worth, currently $849B, has a good chance to surpass the combined $1.12T net worth of Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, and Larry Ellison. 5
  • Eric Jackson projects $BTC could hit $50M by 2041. 6
  • Michael Burry’s post-2008 track record is controversial; despite a 489% return from 2000-2008, his performance since 2013 with Scion has been disappointing, notably predicting 20 crashes but only succeeding 2 times recently. 7

🚀 Individual Stock Analysis

  • Michael Saylor’s rhetoric is a clear $MSTR pump. Convertible bonds, hybrid debt/equity instruments, allow conversion to stock upon specific price triggers. $MSTR’s convertible bond conversion prices for the next 6 years range from $183/share to over $600/share, all above current levels. 8
  • Some retail investors mistakenly equate Palantir with $GME or firms dependent on government ties. 9
  • The software sector faces a collective sell-off, with Microsoft dropping nearly 30% from its peak. Given Palantir’s beta is three times Microsoft’s, a 30% decline for Palantir is normal, not indicative of a “bad stock.” 10
  • OSCR’s stock dip is tied to ACA policy uncertainty, affecting the broader healthcare insurance sector, seen with UNH. OSCR’s aggressive AI adoption is actively driving MLR and SGA to industry-lows, bolstering growth and retention, positioning it to thrive with AI, not be replaced by it. 11
  • OSCR stock surged 10% despite an EPS and revenue miss due to strong forward guidance. Oscar projects over 60% revenue growth and profitability in 2026, driven by core improvements in SG&A and MLR. 12
  • Market sell-off in $HOOD due to Bitcoin adjustment is likely an overreaction. Crypto accounts for less than 20% of total revenue, while Gold membership surged 58% YoY and net interest income grew 39%. Robinhood is evolving into a “financial super App.” 13

🛡️ Leverage & Risk Management

  • Leverage, while amplifying gains (e.g., $QQQ up 10% yields $TQQQ up 30%), carries significant risks as no stock rallies indefinitely. 14
  • Avoid leverage unless a highly certain market trend is present, which retail investors rarely identify accurately, often leading to being trapped. Excessive leverage, especially 2x or 3x, causes significant attrition. 15