🌐 Global Macro Outlook

  • Japan’s markets just clocked a historical first since 2005: the Japanese Yen and Topix stock index correlation flipped positive. This signals a rare simultaneous rally in both assets. 5
  • $DXY price action points to a potential bottoming process. Expect a recovery toward 103–104 by July 2026. 6
  • Gold is at a major structural decision point. Trendline reclaim or rejection will dictate its next 4–5 months, with a potential double top formation in play. 7
  • Major global currencies are universally plumbing new all-time lows against Gold. The US Dollar is merely the latest to fall, part of an ongoing global trend. 8
  • China is facing its “2008 moment.” New home prices in 70 cities dropped -0.4% MoM in January, and -3.1% YoY—the steepest annual decline in 7 months. 62 of 70 cities reported price declines, up from 58 in December. 9

📈 Market & Investment Strategy

  • Michael Burry’s revamped strategy appears sharper: shorting single names instead of indexes and publicly sharing concrete theses to build consensus. Any talk of him selling subscriptions is dismissed. 2
  • “Context Changes Everything” is the cardinal rule in trading and investing. 3
  • The $HOOD sell-off, triggered by Bitcoin adjustments, looks like an overreaction. Crypto makes up less than 20% of total revenue, while Gold membership grew 58% YoY and net interest income jumped 39%. 4
  • BTC is deployed as a liquidity hedge, not a direct short position. 10

💻 Tech & AI Sector Deep Dive

  • Apple/iPhone memory price hikes for 1Q26 LPDDR align with expectations, though NAND Flash increases are slightly lower. iPhone memory pricing has shifted to quarterly negotiations from semi-annual. 11
  • $NVDA is projected to hit over $1B in daily revenue by 2028. 12
  • Software stock trading volume is exploding. $IGV turnover hit a near-record $10.96 billion on Friday, 5X its 200-day moving average and 3.5X its 50-day moving average, signaling massive sector interest. 13
  • The SaaS sell-off is indiscriminate, punishing all software equally, despite some deserving a haircut. The base case for the AI economy suggests a distinction for traditional software. 14

🌍 Geopolitical Economy

  • America’s Maritime Action Plan (MAP) is interpreted as a direct response to geopolitical shifts highlighting U.S. manufacturing deficiencies. Reversing three decades of decline through legislation and funding will be a challenging ascent. 15

📱 Social Media Observation

  • The X platform experiences frequent downtimes. 1