📈 Market Sentiment & Strategy

  • $SPX market psychology shows a split: historical seasonal strength (Nov-Feb) suggests a rally is possible, but broad awareness of this pattern casts doubt on its repetition 1.
  • Wall Street exhibits paradoxical sentiment: investors warn CEOs against overinvestment, yet maintain record-high “no landing” expectations, marking the most optimistic backdrop since June 2021 2.
  • $SPX “pending doom” is widely anticipated, almost comically so. Mag-7 are dragging, while the broader market (S&P-493 via $RSP) is up +5% YTD, signaling a potential shift in market breadth 3.
  • Passive investing drives a self-reinforcing loop, concentrating capital in already-large companies and exacerbating overvaluation through market-cap weighting 4.

🏢 Company Specific Insights

  • Unity ($U) saw a sharp reversal, plummeting from a 3.5-year high to near all-time lows in just 2 months 5.
  • Ajinomoto (#2802), known for food products, also holds a significant position in the semiconductor supply chain, highlighting Japan’s unique corporate diversification 6.
  • Tesla Korea is aggressively hiring AI chip design engineers, confirming Tesla’s serious intent to design and mass-produce its own high-level AI chips 7.
  • Elon Musk pushes for mass production of the wheel-less, pedal-less Cybercab by April, symbolizing a leap from traditional driving to autonomous mobility 8.

💡 AI & Semiconductor Supply Chain

  • A compelling business model leverages “low-cost power from the East” with “high-willingness-to-pay users from the West” 9.
  • Samsung is expediting its hybrid bonding line construction at NVIDIA’s request, signaling critical progress in advanced packaging for AI chips 10.
  • Taiwan’s top 6 AI server makers reported January revenue soaring 56% year-on-year to NT$1.37 trillion (US$43.65 billion), driven by surging shipments of Nvidia GB300 servers. This marks the strongest monthly growth since February last year, exceeding December’s 54.1% 11.
  • Murata Manufacturing is discussing price hikes for data center capacitors, reflecting sustained growth in MLCC demand for data centers 12.

geopolitics Geopolitical & Sector Impact

  • A potential war with Iran could trigger a “Pain Trade: The Broadening,” leading to Energy ($XLE) having its best year since 2022 13.