💡 Original Insights Summary

💻 AI & Chip Sector Dynamics

  • $NVDA built an AI monopoly leveraging its GPU hardware (Hopper, Blackwell, Rubin roadmap) and software ecosystem (CUDA, TensorRT, Triton) 2.
  • Mizuho anticipates a potential Broadcom (AVGO)-ARM partnership at ARM’s March 24 event. An ARM-Broadcom ASIC designed for OpenAI could slash power consumption per token by over 30% compared to existing GPUs 3.
  • $NVDA Vera Rubin timeline pulled forward by 3-6 months, with shipments possible by end-Q2 2026. This acceleration, per Evercore, is due to China export bans freeing up supplier capacity 6, 9.
  • All eyes are on $NVDA earnings next Wednesday, February 25th. This is the market event 13.

📈 Market Patterns & Technicals

  • $AMZN marks a record 10 consecutive red days, a streak last seen in Nov 1997. Historically, after the 1997 event, $AMZN bounced 10% in two days 8, 11.
  • $GLD might be due for a 6% drop. It saw a sharp bounce off a blow-off top, retracing exactly 50% 7.
  • $GLD currently holds the longest monthly winning streak among major asset classes. This trend is ripe for reversal 14.
  • $SPX typically experiences two or more 6%+ drawdowns annually since 1996. The current $SPY peak-to-trough drawdown stands at only -2.7% 10.
  • $VIX touched ~20 in 8 of 11 February trading days. A similar pattern in Nov 2025 preceded a 5.2% $SPY drawdown, while the current drawdown is only -2.7% 12.

💼 Investment & Corporate Strategy

  • Q4 2025 13F reports show “smart money” still heavily allocated to tech, but with selective buying in finance and semiconductors 15.
  • A stunning divergence: 3.5 years ago, $U (Unity) aimed to buy $APP (AppLovin) for $20B, which was rejected. Today, $U’s market cap is $8B, while $APP’s is $133B 16.
  • $NOW executives canceled planned stock sales, and CEO Bill McDermott intends to buy ~$3M in shares, signaling confidence 17.

🌐 Macroeconomics & Fixed Income

  • Almost 90% of global public bonds trade below a 5% yield. With inflation near 3%, investors in public fixed income achieve only a 2% real return annually 4.

🤔 Cultural & Trading Insights

  • The collapse of monopolies over approved narratives will reshape culture 1.
  • Trading is too fluid to rely strictly on rigid rules 5.