📊 Market & Sector Divergence

  • Apparel Retail: A stark divergence persists among top apparel retailers. $LULU languishes near a 6-year low, while peers like $TJX, $ROST, and $BURL command all-time highs (ATHs) or near-ATHs. 1
  • Corporate Turnaround: $BUD has surged to a fresh 6-year high. This rally signals a successful management turnaround, overcoming previous “woke” controversies. 2

📈 Market Structure & Technicals

  • Bearish Signals: A ‘Bearish Pennant’ has appeared, pointing to an imminent market rollover. 3
  • Hit-and-Run Dynamics: The 2026 market is defined by “hit and run” moves. Avoid FOMO; aggressive runs (e.g., 20%) often see a 5-10% pullback within days. 4
  • BTC Bear Trend: $BTC’s bear trend is strengthening, evidenced by rising volatility. Quants use volatility spikes to detect trend shifts; $BTC entered its bear market on such a spike, with continued volatility confirming the trend. 5

💻 Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure

  • Supply Aggression: Samsung and SK Hynix are scrapping supply discipline, accelerating production. SK Hynix’s Yongin Fab 1 starts trial production Feb–Mar next year (6x M15X scale), and Samsung pulls P4 completion to Q4 this year, aiming for 100K–120K HBM4 wafers/month. This aggressive push counters a deepening supply-demand imbalance in the “semiconductor super cycle.” 6, 7
  • Memory Interface Advantage: While market focus is on GPUs, cooling, and power, capital is quietly shifting to memory interface chips. Companies like $RMBS are securing a critical layer in AI infrastructure, suggesting steady valuation growth. 8
  • Nvidia’s Accelerating Cadence: $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang confirms new, unprecedented chips for GTC 2026, signaling an accelerating product cadence beyond Blackwell and Rubin. 9, 10
  • Global AI Factory Expansion: India’s Yotta is building a $2B+ AI compute hub, leveraging $NVDA Blackwell Ultra via a $1B+ 4-year DGX Cloud deal. This APAC-based AI factory, launching by August, extends Nvidia’s footprint beyond U.S. hyperscalers. 11
  • Cadence’s AI Drive: Cadence (Q4 2025) saw revenue up 8% q/q (6% y/y) to $1.44B, with impressive 88.5% GM and 45.8% OPM, largely “driven by AI”. FY25 revenue grew 14% y/y to $5.3B, with QMar guided to $1.42B-$1.46B. IP revenue (up 13% q/q) is projected to outgrow the corporate average for a third year. 12
  • Google’s AI Infrastructure Play: $GOOGL is deploying $15B over five years to bolster AI infrastructure in India and its global data backbone, including new subsea fiber routes connecting India, the U.S., and the Southern Hemisphere. 13

☁️ SaaS & AI Software

  • SaaSpocalypse 2026: Legacy SaaS is slated for repricing as it transitions into “plumbing” layers. 14
  • Palantir Investment Thesis: Mizuho upgrades $PLTR to Outperform with a $195 price target. Palantir is deemed a category leader, building the critical “decision layer” between AI models and enterprise data, justifying ownership despite market aversion to multiples in risk-off tapes. 15

🧠 AI Macro Perspective

  • AI as Transition: AI is better viewed as a societal “transition” rather than an “extinction event.” 16

🧘‍♂️ Trading Psychology & Risk

  • Position Sizing: A position is too large if it induces nervousness, hourly checking, or if a single red day derails the week. Sizing positions to absorb losses is critical for portfolio longevity. 17