📈 Market Outlook / Macro

$SPX’s modest -3.7% dip from ATHs to its recent trough, followed by a bounce above its 50dma and near February’s green, implies a lack of significant bearish conviction. 1
The VIX consistently hitting ~19 in February, almost daily, while the $SPX is only 1.7% off ATHs, highlights a disconnect between implied volatility and market performance. 11
$QQQ’s 7-day pattern of alternating green/red days suggests a potential continuation or reversal, raising questions about tomorrow’s direction. 7
$QQQ is trading under its 50dma for the 12th consecutive day, marking its longest such streak since the April 2025 tariffs crash lows. 28

₿ Crypto / Digital Assets

While $ETH had a recommendation last year, current holders are down some 60%. 2
$BTC is range-bound between $60k and $72k; a capitulatory drawdown towards $49k-$52k would be welcome, expecting a strong bounce from that level. 5
Both $ETH and $BTC are tightening up, signaling a decisive move is imminent. 20
$ETH has proven to be an excellent trading vehicle, offering multiple roundtrips, but its performance as an investment has been less favorable. 30

$SCHW saw a “cute bounce,” but more upside is expected, targeting $97-$98. 3
$FIG surged +50% off its ATL, suggesting a strong rebound is underway. 8
$CVNA plummeted -23% after hours, indicating significant volatility. 9
$CVNA saw wild swings, with a nearly +20% rebound off its aftermarket lows yesterday. 26
The relative valuation between $AAPL and $MSFT has significantly shifted: in August 2025, $AAPL traded at a 5.5-year low relative to $MSFT, but now $MSFT is near an 11-year low relative to $AAPL, signaling a major rotation. 16
$RDDT popped +16% following insider buys, highlighting a positive market reaction. 17
A recent $2M insider buy in $MSFT at current depressed levels suggests the stock is closer to a bottom than a top, anticipating an imminent bounce. 18
$META is projected to hold $620-$625, with a target to return to $700, suggesting a trading range. 19
Analog Devices (QJan26) showed revenue up 3% q/q and 30% y/y to $3.16B at 71.2% GM, with 2Q guidance ($3.5B) implying 11% sequential growth. All end markets are up y/y for 4 straight quarters, and DC/ATE segments now comprise 20% of total ($2B+ run rate) with expected double-digit growth, partly due to TI’s exit from the market. 24
Despite supporting $META, the company’s statements about addiction are disingenuous, as its products are inherently designed for engagement. 27

OpenAI’s full funding through 2030, if finalized, should significantly ease concerns regarding its capital intensity and long-term funding. 13
The market narrative is increasingly swayed by price action over fundamentals, especially with fears of AI overinvestment. Meta exemplifies measurable AI ROI through improvements in ad targeting, ranking, and engagement. 14
The distribution of Rapidus’ 2nm process design kit (PDK) to early customers marks a critical step, establishing the foundational environment for fabless companies to evaluate new chip designs. 21
The Taiwan Stock Market’s 2026 barometer indicates an ABF ‘Supercycle’ driven by AI infrastructure, fueling a demand explosion in PCB and CCL. The long-struggling PCB sector is now in a strong rebound phase due to surging AI server and HPC demand. 22
A growing sentiment of “AI content fatigue” is emerging. 12

Reflecting on a recent critique, learning to apply technical analysis more effectively, particularly concerning linear lines on log scale charts, is an ongoing process. Despite the advice, 95% of charts remain linear. 10