🌎 Macro & Market Outlook 📉

S&P 500 has been range-bound since December, trapped 1.
2026 has been a tough year across markets: crypto bleeding, growth stocks tanking, gold and silver already left, software companies sold hard, and AI shifting from problem to solution. Market weakness is widespread; a weekly gain of +.50% is considered positive 15.
Recent market rotation eased some U.S. large cap stock valuation excesses, but downside risks for U.S. multiples persist. Large cap growth’s sales multiple is still near its all-time high at approximately 6X, and its earnings multiple might still be at least 15% too high 16.
Be wary of the classic Wall Street trick: convincing everyone the pullback is over, then slamming the market down. This pattern deserves close attention for $SPX and $SPY 20.
Kalsi reportedly demonstrates greater alpha on interest rates compared to fed funds futures, signaling a significant development 30.

📈 Stock & Technical Analysis

Identified three primed high-beta setups: $RKLB breaking out, $KTOS broke out, and $LUNR held 55SMA and broke out, indicating broader market readiness 2.
$SPY performed a break and retest of NFP levels, hitting “to the penny” again 3.
$SPY saw a retest and rejection “to the penny” 4.
$ONDS daily chart shows it’s back over moving averages and experiencing a base break higher 6.
$ONDS is poised for a move; breaking above 11.7 will trigger a chase, dubbed a “Passion fruit setup” 19.
$HIMS is 64% away from its 50 Week SMA, indicating extreme price dislocation or volatility 24.
$CVNA experienced extreme volatility, dropping from $362 to $271 yesterday, then bouncing to $344 premarket, making it frustrating for put buyers 28.

If a shopping list includes $CVX, $SLB, and $MMM, then buying $SQQQ is a logical counter-move, suggesting a bearish outlook on the broader market if these stocks are favored 8.
Proper hedging is crucial for portfolio management. For a $100k portfolio with 90% ($90k) in stocks, allocate the remaining $10k not just to cash but potentially to a hedged position, e.g., $7k cash and $3k in $SPY puts 22.
The market is currently range-bound; quick reversals from green to red are probable. Stick to your defined trading plan, style, and rules 27.

Current “AI” is essentially complex algorithms powered by increased computational capacity, not true artificial intelligence. Achieving human-level intelligence will demand orders of magnitude more energy and cost 25.