🌎 Geopolitical & Macro Outlook

  • Geopolitical conflict, despite societal impact, typically acts as a market tailwind. Significant dips from tensions, like with Iran, present strong buy-the-dip opportunities, aligning with historical market reactions. 1

đź§  Trading Psychology & Market Behavior

  • Distinguish conviction from stubbornness. Conviction is rooted in thesis and risk management; stubbornness is holding a bleeding position, hoping for a turnaround. One builds capital, the other blows accounts. 2
  • Effective trade discovery involves rapidly scrolling hundreds of charts from a “go-to list” to spot opportunities. Intriguing setups then undergo deep dives for watchlisting and plan development. 4
  • Navigating a range-bound market demands nimbleness. Implementing “no green to red” stops is crucial for capturing short-term gains. 5
  • The current market breeds overtrading and blow-ups. Beyond a few select names, it’s a wasteland. When positions stall, stepping away is the smart play. 8

📊 Market Signals & Technical Analysis

  • Microsoft director’s $2 million share purchase, the largest in a decade, is a powerful bullish signal. Insider buying is a critical indicator. 3
  • The $VIX has seen sharp weekly declines of -16% and -20% on the last two Fridays. This raises the question of a potential third consecutive “VIX Crush Friday™.” 6
  • For $GOOGL, watch for a sustained move and hold above 305.40, then 308, and the 10-period EMA. 7
  • Key levels for $CRM include a 15-min pivot at 185.92, the 65MA on the 30-min at 185.89, intraday high 186.32, today’s open 186.60, 186.94, today’s high 187.04, yesterday’s close 187.79, and a weekly doji at 189.72. 9