Holding cash allows me to capitalize on market fear and greed. 1
Certain indicators (like the implied one from prior discussion and the Dark Pool Index - DIX) are good for flagging market bottoms or short-term rebounds during sharp market drops, but lack reliability for mid- or long-term moves. 7
Acknowledge superior analysis of VIX expiration and OPEX from another source; my own approach is more reactive to volatility changes, lacking the predictability and actionability of a proactive analysis. 8
December PCE is a non-event, given that January CPI data is already factored in; long-duration bonds remain unfazed. 9
Only $IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) shows sensitivity to current GDP data; PCE remains a non-event. 10
For any conflict with Iran, Israel would need to commit ground forces with US air support; airstrikes alone proved ineffective last year. 4
Oil price speculation is a mug’s game. A sustained surge requires Iran to actually seal the Strait of Hormuz or strike Gulf oil facilities. However, the US Navy dominates Hormuz, and global players (especially non-OECD countries like China) have built significant reserves since last year’s conflict. 12
$MSFT is positioned to trigger a “Capex Recession” that will impact $SMH. 5
$app’s hiring for feed ads might be tied to its OAI partnership. 6
$GOOGL is strategizing to rival $NVDA’s stack by cultivating an independent TPU ecosystem outside GCP, potentially spinning off TPUs as a standalone unit. This involves financing third-party data centers, including a ~$100M investment in Fluidstack at an ~$8B valuation, and backing projects linked to $CIFR. 13
Anthropic’s Claude Code Security launch, with its AI-native vulnerability scanning, is sparking fears of disruption in the cybersecurity space, leading to a pull-back in names like $PANW, $FTNT, $ZS, $RBRK, and $CRWD. 16
Market participants see Claude Code Security as a direct threat to legacy cybersecurity players like $CRWD, $ZS, $PANW, $NET, and $RBRK, signaling the practical emergence of “AI-native security.” 17
A Reuters report has rocked the AI investment community, impacting CoreWeave’s (likely $CRWV) stock. The company’s 2025 revenue target was cut from $5.35B to $5.05B, triggering a pullback. 18
Unpacking $BTC premium stripping: premiums stem from variance, skew, and kurtosis, plus structural mismatches in execution and liquidity. This strategy demands robust engineering, like visualized IV surfaces and real-time skew, which platforms like @GreeksLive provide. 2
$BTC volatility trading is a high-bar game, demanding both deep technical know-how and robust engineering. Mastery requires solid technical grounding. 11
The Supreme Court’s ruling against using IEEPA for tariffs is narrow; it doesn’t impact tariffs imposed under Section 301 (e.g., Trump’s original China tariffs) or Section 232 (e.g., steel, aluminum). 14