📈 Market Trend Forecasts

  • The Dow Jones Composite Average just hit another new all-time high this week, comprising all 65 companies from the Dow Industrial, Transports, and Utility Averages. 1
  • Small-cap consolidation must resolve higher; otherwise, market conditions could get messy. 7
  • Financials are pulling back to their summer 2024 lows relative to the S&P 500. 19
  • The NYSE Advance-Decline line hit new all-time highs on Friday, but the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average made lower highs and is now at new 6-week lows. 20
  • Another Hindenburg Omen signal triggered today, marking the 5th such signal in the past month, indicating a growing cluster. 21
  • $LUNR, $RKLB, $ASTS, and $KTOS all peaked before the broader market rolled over. Now, some are firming up while others remain weak, suggesting these might lead the next short-term risk-on move. 28
  • $MSFT is nearing its 200-week SMA, a level it has tested only 3 times in the past 13 years, each instance followed by a 100% gain two years later. 29
  • $MU is looking perky, and if $SNDK’s recent breakout is any indication, $MU could be next. 30

💡 Bitcoin & Crypto Insights

  • Commercials are extremely Net-Short Bitcoin, while Large Speculators are extremely Net-Long. Prior instances of this dynamic have signaled bottoming processes for Bitcoin ($BTC). 12
  • The global macro and systemic implications of Bitcoin have never been more significant than they are currently. 16

💻 Tech & AI Sector Analysis

  • We’re riding this pony as far as it can go; this isn’t a new paradigm, emphasizing the need to marry valuations with technicals. 15
  • The team at @StockMktTV focuses on how markets react to earnings, using a proprietary reaction score to break down expectations versus reality, rather than just providing earnings calendars or AI TLDRs. 17
  • $NVDA relative to $MAGS is worth watching, particularly when considering whether to hold $NVDA into earnings. 22
  • $IGV Bulls, it’s time to act. 26
  • Question: What sector is AI going to disrupt next? 27