๐Ÿ“ˆ Market Structure & Sentiment

  • Software stocks are underperforming the Nasdaq 100 by the largest margin on record ๐Ÿ“‰ 1
  • Stock market hasn’t hit ‘Extreme Greed’ since July 23rd, 2025, and crypto since December 17th, 2024 ๐Ÿค” 4
  • Markets move fast, often irrationally; AI rapidly transitioned from a tailwind to a headwind for many companies ๐Ÿ’จ 7
  • Jamie Dimon consistently issues “doom and gloom” forecasts, with the latest hinting at a 2008-type financial crisis ๐Ÿšจ 8
  • A “Green/Red” alternating pattern persists in $QQQ; if today closes green, the trend extends, though it’s expected to break eventually ๐Ÿ“Š 9
  • FINRA Margin Debt, when viewed as a percentage of SPX Market Cap, appears less concerning than often portrayed โœ… 16
  • S&P500 at 7000 is a critical level, with key Fibonacci extensions identified at 6968 (161.8% from 2025 Tariff Tantrum), 6954 (261.8% from ‘21-‘22 Bear Market), and 6899 (685.4% from ‘07-‘09 GFC) ๐Ÿ“ˆ 15

๐Ÿค– AI & Tech Sector Dynamics

  • $AMD transformed from an “alternative” to a key AI player, with ~12GW committed by $META & OpenAI. If Helios competes on performance-per-watt-per-dollar with $NVDA’s Rubin, $AMD could seize a decade-defining shot ๐Ÿš€ 6
  • Is Nvidia, now the largest company, inherently the most important, and will Wednesday’s earnings reaction dictate broad market implications? ๐Ÿค” 12
  • Anthropic is strategically positioning Claude to become the default AI layer in enterprise workflows, leveraging plugins to embed it across departments (HR, finance, engineering, ops) as core infrastructure ๐Ÿ—๏ธ 18

๐Ÿ“Š Company Specifics & Stock Reactions

  • $AMD saw a +15% pop post-$META news, settling at +10% ๐Ÿ’ฅ 2
  • $HIM plunged further post-earnings, with RSI hitting historical lows, signaling intense investor anxiety ๐Ÿ“‰ 13
  • A ~$5B company, driving the “largest industrial buildout,” shows $1M+ customer spend up 123% YoY, AI ARR at ~$120M (growing 150% YoY), with management targeting reacceleration to ~30% growth in 2027 (vs ~20% expectations) ๐Ÿš€ 10

โš ๏ธ Macro & Risk Signals

  • JPMorgan’s Bob Michele draws parallels between current CLO equity moves and ABX indices from 2005-2007, cautioning against dismissing these signals as noise ๐Ÿ”” 3
  • Gold and silver erased gains, losing -$1.1 trillion in market cap within 12 hours, linked to ongoing AI speculation ๐Ÿ“‰ 11

๐Ÿ’ฐ Crypto & Digital Assets

  • Retail investors collectively lost over $4.3B from the TRUMP coin ๐Ÿ’ธ 5
  • $META plans to relaunch stablecoin payments in 2H2026, marking a return to crypto rails after a previous failed attempt ๐Ÿ”„ 14
  • Ondo Global Markets on Binance Alpha is a major step in crypto-traditional finance convergence, boosting US equity market access for non-US/Asian investors via tokenized stocks ๐ŸŒ 17