🧠 AI & Software Landscape

  • AI-generated code relies entirely on accumulated technical legacies (libraries, frameworks); it doesn’t innovate or create new foundations, hinting at a “ceiling” for novel software creation. 4
  • Meta AI saw ~23M visits in January. While the standalone site is smaller than ChatGPT, Meta’s real power lies in embedding AI across its ~4B-user ecosystem. 5
  • BTC and IGV (US software ETF) trends align closely. Anthropic’s recent announcement, positioning Claude as a collaborator rather than a replacement for software companies, could mark a short-term turning point for the software stock sell-off, potentially stabilizing BTC. 6

🏭 Semiconductor & Tech Infrastructure

  • Texas Instruments is fortified with $20B revenue capacity in cleanrooms (LFAB2, SM1), with SM2 shell complete and SM3/4 slated for the 2030s. After 6 years of high capex, spend cools to $2-$3B in 2026 (from $2-$5B). 1
  • The TSM Arizona fab, ~1,100 acres and ~$165B, is poised to be a pivotal U.S. infrastructure project this decade. 2
  • Apple’s Houston plant will start producing Mac Mini and dedicated AI Servers this year. These servers support Apple Intelligence features through Private Cloud Compute (PCC). 3

📈 Market Observations & Strategy

  • Hollywood is missing a “cash cow” by not producing more Wall Street movies, despite high public interest following hits like The Big Short and Wolf of Wall Street. 7
  • $NVO is hitting multi-year lows, having “round tripped 5 years worth of gains,” a pattern known as the “Christmas Tree formation” in technical analysis. 8
  • A hypothetical Stripe acquisition of $PYPL at $60/share, even with a 57% premium from recent lows, would be a major loss for $PYPL, despite being a win for Stripe. 9
  • $UBER’s Uber Air launch with $JOBY eVTOLs in Dubai underscores its strategy: own the demand layer for mobility, not the underlying autonomy or aircraft. 12
  • $ODD plummeted over 40% after guiding Q1 revenue to decline ~30% (vs. market expecting ~21% growth). Blaming algorithm changes for spiking CAC, such a miss points to a structural issue, demanding a pre-announcement. 13
  • Successful trading prioritizes quality over quantity; top traders typically take only 20-25 positions annually. The market is always there; constant trading is unnecessary. 10
  • Market corrections, though feared, historically precede rapid rebounds and new highs, evidenced by swift recoveries post-2022 bear, Covid crash, Dec 2018 panic, Brexit, and Trump election. 11

🌍 Global Politics

  • Brazil’s 2026 election presents a tough challenge for Lula. In a second round, both Tarcísio and Flávio Bolsonaro are polling ahead, with Tarcísio leading, indicating a genuinely competitive race from the right. 14