A $VIX drop below its 20-day moving average, after 30 days above, historically signals bull strength. Similar reversals led to $SPX being higher 100% of the time one year later, averaging a +20.4% gain 2.
$SPY recorded its second lowest daily volume since late December 2025, leaving a notable open gap higher. All such gaps since mid-December 2025 have historically closed. Expect potential volatility due to EOM rebalancing on Friday 4.
Market breadth shows historic improvement. 66% of S&P 500 stocks are outperforming YTD, the highest since 1986. This doubled from the extreme concentration of 29% seen in 2023, 2024, and 2025 5.
Prior instances of $SPX monthly RSI hitting 75+ led to subsequent red months with pullbacks of -5%, -11%, and -5%. A pullback in March appears overdue, given the current monthly RSI of 75+ 6.
The Nasdaq 100 put-to-call ratio is at 1.2, its highest since the 2022 bear market low. This reading surpasses the April 2025 spike and any other over the last 12 years (excluding 2022, which hit 2.3) 10.
The $SPX has historically experienced at least one -6% or greater drawdown annually since 1996 (except 2017), a 97% probability. A -6% dip would conveniently reset it to the 200-day moving average 11.
The recent rally in metals and mining has yet to translate into a material inflationary impulse. Markets currently dismiss this possibility, which contradicts historical patterns 12.
$NVDA’s supply-related commitments (to $TSM and others) surged by $44.9B Q/Q to $95.2B, signaling robust future demand and production scaling 7.
$NVDA’s data center revenue has exploded, up approximately 13x since the “ChatGPT moment,” underscoring the profound impact of AI on its core business 8.
Micron is trailing Samsung and Hynix, likely out of the running for Rubin HBM49.
NVIDIA’s recent earnings beat even the most bullish expectations. Q4 revenue and data center revenue hit records, gross margin surpassed 75%, and data center revenue saw a 75% Y/Y acceleration. Q1 guidance is 4% higher than optimistic buy-side estimates, projecting nearly 77% Y/Y growth, excluding China revenue 15.
Jane Street deleting all their tweets is a cryptic move, prompting speculation about underlying reasons 1.
“Maggy 7” stocks ($TSLA, $META, $GOOG, $AMZN, $MSFT, $AAPL) consistently faded post-earnings. Any earnings pop fully retraced, and drops deepened further. $NVDA’s post-earnings fate remains to be seen 3.
$MELI is trading at an all-time low forward valuation, a noteworthy development 13.
SaaS software and tech growth stocks are experiencing significant YTD declines: $Sofi-27%, $Hood-33%, $PLTR-27%, $AMZN-9%, $MSFT-18%14.