Despite major tech names like $NVDA (-13% off ATH), $MSFT (-29% off ATH), and $META (-18% off ATH) seeing significant pullbacks, $SPY remains only 1.5% from its ATH. This highlights a divergence or an aggressive sector rotation that warrants attention. 1
The 3-month risk-adjusted momentum factor between S&P 500 cap-weighted and equal-weighted has plunged to -0.60, a low unseen since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. This signals large-caps are delivering the weakest volatility-adjusted performance. 2
A significant capital rotation is underway, moving out of US assets and into the rest of the world. Expect a powerful reallocation within emerging markets, notably given Asia’s 81% dominance in the MSCI EM Index versus Latin America’s mere 7%. 3
The impending launch of DeepSeek V4 and its early access provision to domestic suppliers like Huawei (allowing hardware optimization) could be the direct cause of NVIDIA’s recent stock plunge, signaling a potential bypass of NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI hardware ecosystem. 4
Anthropic rejected the Pentagon’s “final offer,” standing firm against using its AI platform for American surveillance or lethal military missions. This sets a precedent for AI ethics and will likely provoke a significant response. 5
A critical divergence exists between executive claims and industry research, particularly with Meta’s MTIA. Leadership insists on MTIA’s fine performance, yet external reports suggest otherwise, posing a challenge to corporate narratives. 6
Meta’s multi-billion-dollar adoption of TPUs raises significant questions about the future of their in-house MTIA efforts, implying a potential strategic shift or acknowledgment of MTIA’s limitations. 7
$GOOGL secured a multibillion-dollar deal to supply $META with TPUs for AI model development, potentially including direct chip purchases next year. This positions Zuckerberg as a customer of Google, $AMD, and $NVDA simultaneously. 8
Zuckerberg should avoid building in-house chips. $META currently benefits from deals with $AMD, $NVDA, and $GOOGL, allowing them to leverage competition, ensure supply security, and optimize costs by not being dependent on a single vendor’s fab capacity. 9
Delta Electronics is set to hit a record capex in 2026, surpassing last year’s NT$46.1 billion (US$1.5B), to ramp up AI server power supply production. Despite this massive investment, Chairman Ping Cheng warns “capacity will remain tight for the next year or two.” 10
$XYZ’s recent 40% staff cut (4K employees, ~$600M annual savings) leading to an ~$8B market cap gain establishes a new “playbook” for commoditized industries. Expect this aggressive cost-cutting model to spread across fintech, marketplaces, and support-heavy businesses. 11
$NFLX surged ~12% after hours by declining to raise its bid for $WBD, collecting a $2.8B breakup fee. This strategic withdrawal positions $PARA as the clear winning bidder for WBD. 12
The “century-long battle” for Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) concludes with Paramount ($PARA) outbidding Netflix ($NFLX). Paramount raised its offer to $81 billion ($31 per share), exceeding Netflix’s $72 billion, indicating aggressive competition in the streaming acquisition space. 13
In a few years, $NFLX might acquire both Warner Bros and Paramount combined for half of today’s estimated $110 billion cost (equity + WBD’s debt), particularly if their current management struggles without robust distribution. 14
Recalling Jack Dorsey’s return as Twitter CEO in 2015, his decision to distribute 5-10% of his shares (e.g., 8K-10K shares) to all employees was a “socialist” move. This generous allocation even funded early investments in ventures like SpaceX for some, highlighting an unconventional approach to employee incentives. 15
Kratos ($KTOS) plans a $1 billion common stock offering, plus a $150 million underwriter option. This is a short-term hit to the stock, given the significant dilution impact on existing shareholders’ EPS. 16
Bearish outlook for seat-based SAAS businesses; $MSFT dipping below $400 again reinforces this sentiment. 17
Global smartphone shipments are poised to fall 12.9% to 1.12 billion units this year, driven by a “tsunami-like shock” in the memory supply chain impacting all consumer electronics. Low-end phones will bear the brunt as high memory prices challenge sub-$100 device viability. 18
A deep dive into $IONQ’s Q4 2025 earnings reveals the company has shed its reputation for commercialization challenges. Strong order delivery and ample funds for M&A indicate a robust strategic position. 19
Drawing parallels, $HCA’s 2024 GLP fears and subsequent recovery could foreshadow $SPGI’s potential 2026 AI fears and eventual recovery. Market overreactions to new tech/trends often follow a similar pattern. 20
A whale dropped $4 million on $DDOG December 130 calls today, signaling a strong bullish conviction. 21
$NFLX was ignored at $80, but now at $90+ will attract buyers. While the current bounce is strong, the analyst posits a deeper rally could have materialized if Netflix had acquired WBD, even at a high valuation of the next 5 years of consolidated FCF. 22