🌍 Geopolitical Dynamics & AI’s Role

  • The geopolitical landscape fundamentally shifted in 2026, marked by coordinated strikes on Iran and the capture of Venezuela’s Maduro. Anthropic and other AI platforms were critical, highlighting the Pentagon’s rapid integration of frontier AI models 1, 7.
  • Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei backs 99% of defense AI use cases but draws red lines at domestic mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, citing AI’s current unreliability without human oversight 18.
  • Extreme debt consistently fuels geopolitical tension and conflict. Deglobalization is a structural shift, not a transitory phase 20.
  • Eliminating Khamenei, while a dramatic event, would destabilize the geopolitical system and make China nervous 12.

📈 Market Structure & Technical Signals

  • $NLR shows a compelling setup: drying volume and price above the 21-week EMA. A channel breakout could target $200. Top holdings include $CCJ, $DNN, $CEG, $BWXT, $NXE 3.
  • Switzerland experienced a significant “stick” breakout this month 6.
  • New York Times ($NYT) continues to shine. Its monthly candlestick was more than 20 points wide, closing at a new all-time high on Friday 8.
  • NYSE stocks on Friday hit a new six-week low for percentages above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating market weakness 14.
  • Since 2009, an $SPX intra-year peak-to-trough drawdown of 20%+ has never been followed by a repeat; the largest subsequent drawdown (ex-2010) was only -11% 15.
  • The Micro-cap Index is up for ten consecutive months, closing the month at its highest level ever, a divergence from perceived market weakness 16.
  • The $XLE energy ETF is set for an 11th straight weekly gain, a 27-year record. Its weekly RSI is likely approaching all-time highs of 82-85 27.
  • Israel’s Tel Aviv 125 Index has clocked 11 straight up months, 19 of the last 20, suggesting the October 2023 capitulation was a historic buying opportunity 28.

🛢️ Commodity Markets & Geopolitical Risk

  • A significant geopolitical risk premium is priced in, with oil prices up +20% in 6 weeks and gold surging ahead of events in Iran 10.
  • My strategy involves taking profits at the open and patiently re-entering $XLE names and $USO when $CL dips in the coming weeks 12.

📊 Macroeconomic Data Interpretation

  • Remember the 45-day delay in BLS data prints compared to Truflation data for better economic insights 26.

🏢 Company-Specific Insights

  • $GOOGL is testing a new HTTPS version in Chrome to protect the internet from future quantum computer hacks 22.
  • Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ($AAOI), once a struggling second-tier optical module maker in CATV and data center competition, has revitalized. Following its 2025 Q4 earnings, it’s now entering the capital market’s most exclusive VIP tier 29.

₿ Cryptocurrency Outlook

  • “Smart money” is actively selling Bitcoin 21.
  • $BTC sits around $66,000, equidistant from recent highs and lows by $6,000. Bollinger bands are nearing their yearly tightest, signaling an impending significant move 23.