⚔️ Geopolitical Impact & Market Reactions

Market’s initial shrug on conflict suggests no WW3 scenario. S&P 500 down less than 1%, Gold up a mere 2%, and Bitcoin positive, while oil erased nearly half its opening gap. 3
The opening was a non-event, dismissing initial war fears. 2
Oil prices unwound below $70/barrel, now up only +3.5%, wiping out nearly 70% of early gains, reinforcing the ’not WW3’ narrative. 12
When missiles fly, it’s time to buy – a contrarian play during geopolitical heat. 11

💡 Specific Stock/Sector Deep Dives

$PLTR’s deep integration into national security and global crises explains its rich 77x revenue and 180 forward P/E multiple. 1
$PLTR spiked to $144.50 overnight, cynically linked to “war” catalysts. 10
$UBS is flipping the script on Private Credit, now trashing what it championed for 6 years. 6

TSMC is poised for a monster 2026 with EPS north of NT$100, fueled by insatiable AI chip demand (3nm, 2nm) from Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Google; quarterly EPS could breach NT$20. 4
TSMC and Taiwan’s OSATs are dropping over NT$300 billion (US$10 billion) into advanced packaging capacity this year. CoWoS output targets 100,000 wafers per month (wpm) by end 2026, up from 70,000wpm. 5
TSMC Arizona hit green with NT$16.1 billion (US$514 million) net profit last year, a swing from NT$14.2 billion loss in 2024. In contrast, TSMC Japan bled NT$9.76 billion, while China operations banked NT$39.1 billion net profit, tallying TSMC’s total at NT$76.25 billion. 7
TSMC may have tripped on US export controls with its S60 processor for China’s Enflame, given its power profile. 8