📈 Market Sentiment & Strategy

  • “Observe > Act” remains the paramount strategy this week 1.
  • The S&P 500 opened, down -0.65% with futures erasing half of overnight losses, signaling the market is unwinding “WW3” fears 5.

📊 Market Structure & Technicals

  • A rare market pattern unfolds: a bid at open after two consecutive -0.75% gap-down days near all-time highs, last seen on 2/28/2020 and 2/6/2018, coupled with a massive VIX crush 7.
  • Historically, a “Big Gap Up + Big Sell Down” on $VIX has coincided with market bottoms, notably on 4/7/25, 2/24/22, 6/15/20, 8/24/15, and 1/22/08 17.

⛓️ Crypto Outlook

  • Bitcoin sits at a historical RSI low, mirroring 2022, 2018, and 2015 bottoms, signaling a potential bull run 26.
  • A key analyst (Wayne), who nailed the recent $BTC top, forecasts an imminent bottom and a massive rebound to $200k 13.

🌍 Macro Economic Pulse

  • Sustained expansion in ISM Manufacturing points to a re-accelerating economy 18.

🚀 Equity Specifics & Sector Plays

  • $ONDS is ripping >20% today on the back of its Iron Drone Raider, uniquely positioned for the evolving drone threat environment 20.
  • The strategic importance of drone technology in current military operations underscores $ONDS and $KTOS as essential holdings 30.
  • A specific stock, likely $PLTR, currently around $145, is projected to tumble by 85% to a $20 target 21.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) offers a prime accumulation zone for long-term players; macro/geopolitical induced sell-offs have pushed its forward P/E close to 20 22.