🌎 Geopolitical & Macro Strategies

$BTC, $ETH deep OTM Puts reasonable for geopolitical hedge; war is largely priced, but full pricing of Iran succession is impossible 引用[1].
Buy deep OTM near-month $CL calls as portfolio insurance, as crude and gold pull back 引用[2].
Market dynamics during conflict: $SPY and $QQQ flip green; “Stocks love war” 引用[3].
Geopolitical pricing: war uncertainty is bearish, actual war is bullish (already priced) 引用[4].
LNG market insights: Qatar’s 20% global export share, Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, no global reserve standard, historical +17x price spike in Europe ‘22 引用[5].

📈 Equity Analysis & Sector Deep Dive

Defense tech basket strong: $PLTR as AI OS (Rule of 40 score 127%), $AXON for public safety ($14.4B backlog, 43% YoY growth), $CRWD as AI shield 引用[6].
STMicro’s Apple revenue grew 9% (driven by content) despite overall CY25 -11% decline, though still 20% below previous peak 引用[7].
$AVAV plunged ~25% after Raymond James double-downgrade on Space Force’s $1.4B SCAR program recompete 引用[8].
Jensen Huang invested $2 billion into #COHR and #LITE each 引用[9].
$AMD extends AI PC market share with new Ryzen AI 400/PRO 400 processors, targeting a ~40% CAGR segment through 2030 引用[10].

$PLTR confirms bullishness, breaking above support and 21EMA 引用[11].
$AAOI “Monthly breakout” is overheated (170% gain since Jan 28th from $40 to $100); expecting a Peak & Mean reversal 引用[12].
VIX popped and hit resistance; breakout implies significant market pain 引用[13].
$ONDS intraday chart turns down, needs to hold its gap up 引用[14].
$NVDA bounced strong off 200MA daily after entering gap at $182.59; long $NVDL position initiated 引用[15].
$NVDA accumulation strategy: 50% filled, remaining to be added only below Friday’s entry price 引用[16].