The ongoing conflict is a decentralized “gorilla war” with no central command, suggesting miscalculated stakes despite attempts to “cut off the head of the snake.” 4
A cynical take on the quote “Wars can be fought forever” implies a prolonged, intractable global conflict. 23
China’s dramatic surge in submarine production, accelerating to significantly higher rates, suggests its undersea forces could credibly challenge U.S. regional maritime dominance by 2040, according to the US Navy Intelligence Chief. 25
While US stocks rallied on perceived conflict control and Trump’s speech, the true market driver remains the Strait of Hormuz shipping, especially with hardliners dominating Iran’s internal politics. 6
A key asymmetric bet pre-war was to buy put options on India ($INDA), given its 88% oil import reliance, with half passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and only 40-45 days of stockpile. 9
Despite rally calls, the ongoing war is bearish for precious metals; war fuels inflation, forcing central banks to keep rates elevated, which crushes the bullish case for metals. 5
$DXY saw a strong rally but will likely get smacked hard short term; a pause would be healthy. 7
$WTI might climb to $90 if the war persists for weeks. 10
$TGT had a nice earnings pop and, at near $120, remains a “super cheap name.” 14
$TSLA Model 3 leases are “ridiculously cheap,” and the product itself is great, with 19 out of 20 surveyed peers loving their Teslas; the stock should eventually reflect this product quality. 21
Memory pricing will cool off as hyperscalers are reportedly running out of capital. 11
$NBIS demonstrated that AI data centers don’t need to be “always on” in a UK trial with National Grid and $NVDA, reducing power by 40% with a 96-GPU Blackwell cluster, implying compute can become dispatchable. 22