🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Impact

  • Ukraine conflict, oil prices, and the Hormuz Strait closure underscore Russia’s critical role as an oil/gas supplier. 1
  • The Iran conflict is driving up demand for earth imagery services; Planet Labs ($PL), selected by DoD as a primary contractor, is set for a business surge. 2
  • A US-Iran war is not priced in. Anticipate oil spikes, escalating energy costs, crushing AI data centers, and a market bubble pop. Rising rates and inflation will obliterate housing demand as bubbles of cheap money and stability vanish. 3

🔬 Sector & Company Specific Analysis (AI/Pharma & Tech)

  • The partnership between Tempus ($TEM) and Merck ($MRK) confirms pharma’s pivot to integrating AI into core drug development workflows. 4
  • The Merck and Tempus strategic partnership signals a profound industry shift from “wet lab” trial-and-error to data-driven “dry lab” smart decision-making, an unprecedented industry tailwind. 5
  • Michael Burry’s long position in Adobe ($ADBE) suggests a contrarian stance: the market overestimates AI’s immediate disruption, as enterprise creative workflows won’t unwind quickly. 6

📊 Market Sentiment & Trading Strategy

  • Took a small position in EWY puts 4 days ago to test the water, but exited too early. 7
  • Hitting SPX 6600 will likely trigger “Buy The F***ing Dip” (BTFD) signals. 8
  • The market is cracking, stocks are puking, and $VIX remains elevated, indicating a widespread downturn. 9
  • Exited $JPM after a stop-loss hit, resulting in a slightly over 3% loss. 10
  • Market behavior is consistent; a viable strategy involves buying $NFLX when prices hit long-term trendlines. 11
  • The current market, driven by headlines and energy prices, carries higher risk for new trades. Prudence dictates caution or staying out when in doubt. 12
  • $VIX observed at 27.86, a significant jump from yesterday’s 20.37 lows. A VIX below 20 typically signals bullish conditions; monitor the 28 area. 13