📈 Market Outlook & Technical Analysis#
$QQQ eyes a run to $590 to fill a gap and bounce off the 200dma . Next, pushing over $600 to test the $605ish orange trendline. 1
🧠 Trading Strategy & Philosophy#
Trading for trading’s sake gets punished in current markets. Constant activity is pointless. The market ignores trade frequency. 2
🔬 Semiconductor Industry Outlook#
NAND Flash memory chip prices are set for a 90% surge in Q1, per TrendForce. 3 AI data center storage demand fuels an anticipated 85%-90% surge in NAND Flash prices for Q1. 4
📉 Market Sentiment & Volatility#
Opening VVIX > 125 and DVOL > 90 signaled capitulation. Yet, closing VVIX at 116 and DVOL at 76.5 showed the capitulation evaporated quickly. Buyers rushed in, burning liquidity; this price action is concerning. 5
💰 Macroeconomic Fundamentals#
Every dollar spent on debt service is a dollar lost for growth investment. 6
Over the last 3 days , $EWJ (Japan ETF) plunged -10% peak-to-trough. $EWY (Korea ETF) dropped -17% peak-to-trough. $SPY (USA ETF) saw a milder -2.3% peak-to-trough decline, showing US market resilience. 7
🛡️ Geopolitical & Market Strategy#
Before buying US stocks, evaluate conviction in Donald Trump. Without clear conviction, best to wait, accepting the trade-off. 8
The situation post-Khamenei’s death is far from settled. Expect a potentially more severe period as more hawkish factions may rise in Iran. 9