šŸ“ˆ Market Outlook & Strategy šŸ”®

  • Agentic AI is driving S&P-493 outperformance over the Mag-7, signaling a “broadening” market—the core bull thesis for 2026. 4
  • Don’t get carried away with optimism; $CL crude oil prices show no signs of retracement at the moment. 3
  • This week, I’m hedging Iran war risks by buying $USO weekly/bi-weekly calls before market close and selling at open, opting against high IV index puts. 8
  • A “hated rally” is brewing; bearish and hedged participants will be forced to capitulate. 15
  • $USO RSI is redlining: daily highest since Sept 2023, weekly since June 2022, monthly since May 2022. Don’t chase. 17
  • Expect cybersecurity stocks like $CRWD to hit all-time highs (+40% from current levels) by mid-2027, making present AI disruption fears look absurd. 5

šŸ’» Tech & AI Insights

  • Grok is “dogshit,” Co-Pilot is “catshit.” Quoting “The Big Short,” Llama is “dogshit wrapped in catshit.” 10
  • $NVDA is reallocating TSMC capacity from H200 to Rubin. 19

šŸŒ Geopolitical & Macro Impacts

  • China’s “Two Sessions” opened; initial expectations for policy targets and fiscal strength were off, falling short. Policy tones have shifted since 2026. The work report highlights: investment is unusually significant, a core characteristic; actual policy implementation deviates from report phrasing. 9
  • China’s directive for top refiners to halt diesel/gasoline exports spells trouble for Australia, Philippines, Vietnam, and other APAC nations, as China accounts for 3.5% to 5% of global refined petroleum sales. 13
  • This is a “gorilla war.” Decapitating Tehran hasn’t stopped missile launches. Trump’s hoped-for internal revolt failed. Market turbulence, or “TACO,” may be next. 18

šŸ“Š Individual Stock Analysis

  • $AVAV The SCAR contract may not be a complete loss, but rather a restructuring into multiple smaller pieces, leading to more vendors and a larger market share. Increased manufacturing capex supports this view. Earnings are coming next week. 1
  • $BKSY Daily shows Three White Soldiers, Weekly forms a Cup & Handle, targeting $40+. Depletion of regional interceptor supplies will ignite real-time geospatial intelligence demand. 2
  • $PLTR finds support at $130, resistance at $157. Long on this pullback, seeing a strong bounce at support. Hitting $100 won’t be as straightforward as Burry suggests. 6
  • Watch small-cap $CXDO ($200M); await breakout above $7.50 resistance. CAIRO, its AI phone agent, is the game-changer. 7
  • $TTD CEO executed massive insider buys recently; this stock is watchlist-worthy. 11
  • $APP sees a strong bounce at the 50% Fib level and is back above the trendline—bullish. Next target: $550. 12
  • $TTD CEO Jeffrey Green bought $148 million in shares. Insider buys suggest one thing: bullishness. Nearest resistance is 50% higher. 14
  • $COST just hit its first Golden Cross since May 2023; the last one led to a moonshot. Will history repeat? Earnings are tomorrow after hours. 16