Brent oil prices surging above $82.50/barrel, with gas prices up nearly +20% since January, suggests monitoring oil as a leading indicator for potential market interventions. The world cannot sustain $100/barrel oil. 1
Tail risks loom large from an overconfident market underestimating Iran’s industrial prowess, geography, and terrain. My recommendation: buy near-month deep out-of-the-money calls on $CL for high leverage. 4
While Ray Dalio’s premise about AI’s pervasive impact is sound, the conclusion that it will lead to pervasive profitability is flawed. The commercial model for AI, based on per-token gross margin, will cap profitability lower than the internet era; Nvidia’s 70% will likely be the ceiling, with leading companies achieving 50-60%. 2
Google NotebookLM’s Video Overview now offers cinematic output for Gemini Ultra users, a significant upgrade from 2D, elevating text summarization and generalization. This feature will soon extend to Pro users. 6
Google Deepmind’s development lead openly inviting Qianwen team members post-Lin Junyang’s departure signals intensified competition in the AI talent market. This move highlights internal adjustments within companies potentially leading to “self-sabotage” by losing key personnel. 11
Nvidia has redirected H200 orders, prioritizing TSMC to accelerate Vera Rubin production. This strategic pivot is a direct response to US-China regulatory pressures. 7
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan asserts unique positioning to keep customers on direct attached copper through 200G SerDes, projecting continued use even with 400G SerDes by 2028. This outlook sees Broadcom maintaining its edge. Correspondingly, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI are trading lower pre-market. 12
Key takeaways from JPM’s Samsung Korea Conference indicate eSSD supply shortages will persist through 2027. Samsung’s management presents a constructive memory market outlook, anticipating tight supply-demand conditions, with DRAM/NAND bit demand growth, continuing through 2027. 13
Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun confirms the sharp rise in memory prices is exerting significant pressure on the company’s smartphone business, impacting pricing strategies. 15
$NVDA has ceased production of H200 chips intended for China, reallocating $TSM capacity to its upcoming Vera Rubin platform. 17
KOSPI is poised to test the 0.5 Fib level at 5700. 3
Following two days of severe drops and circuit breakers, the South Korean stock market triggered an “upward circuit breaker” due to a sharp rebound (>10%). This is driven by government rescue expectations and de-escalating Middle East tensions. This “rescue-rebound” pattern is observed repeatedly, diminishing investor fear. Key beneficiaries: Samsung up 14.98%, SK Hynix up 16.02%, Hyundai up 12.6%. 5
$BABA is hitting fresh multi-month lows today, levels unseen since early Sept 2025. This stock has seen 7 consecutive days down and 6 consecutive weeks down, plunging 30% right after making multi-year highs. The daily RSI is likely under 20 at open, marking its lowest point in its history. 10
Robinhood has launched a platinum credit card, directly targeting American Express Platinum. This offering boasts aggressive perks: 5% cash back on dining/flights, $500 annual discounts for DoorDash/restaurants, 10% hotel cash back, unlimited airport lounge access, $800 annual hotel/travel credits, and free Oura/Amazon Medical memberships, plus a $250 annual car loan deduction. 8
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent to the NYSE and operator of 13 global exchanges, investing in OKX is significant. ICE’s broad financial infrastructure, spanning futures/derivatives and equities, suggests a strategic play into diverse asset classes. 14
$RGTI posted $1.9M in Q4 revenue yet carries a ~$6B valuation. For perspective, $GOOGL generates ~$17M in profit every hour, highlighting a stark valuation disconnect. 9
$AMZN has rolled out Amazon Connect Health, an AI-powered platform for healthcare. This system automates scheduling, verification, documentation, and coding, integrating seamlessly with EHR systems. It handles up to 80% of call tasks, with early users reporting a 30-60% reduction in call abandonment rates. 16