Strait of Hormuz escalation: A prediction sees “boots on the ground” targeting IRGC for regime change, rather than negotiation. 1
Trump’s “unconditional surrender” redefined: The White House suggests the US, not Iran, will determine when threats cease and objectives like “Epic Fury” are met. This redefines the term. 2
Asia’s energy vulnerability: Highly dependent on Middle East oil and gas. Around 90% of crude from the Strait of Hormuz heads to Asia, and 82% of LNG from Qatar/UAE goes to Asian buyers. China alone accounts for 38% of this oil flow. 3
$SPX market anomaly: The index is down 2 consecutive weeks, a streak not seen for 3+ red weeks since Feb-March 2025. Bears are digging in. 4
Volatility trap: Anticipating a reflexive bid on a vol crash once panic hedging abates without immediate catastrophe. Bullish weekend news could trigger a vol crush, preceding eventual de-grossing and de-risking pain. 5
Software leads tech: $IGV (Tech-Software ETF) on a historic run, outperforming $SOXX (Semiconductor Sector ETF) by +16.59 percentage points over 6 sessions. This is the largest 6-day outperformance on record, with $IGV rallying +8.37%. 6
Sentiment snapshot: “Extreme Greed” hasn’t printed since July 2025. “Extreme Fear” has hit 3 times since then, with next week likely marking the 4th. Bears dominating the tape. 7
$HIMS comeback: Stock surged to $22+ after hours, defying earlier calls for it to drop below $10. This move marks its first green week since Thanksgiving. 8, 9
$HIMS regret: Missed the 40% after-hours rally post-Novo partnership news, having sold off at $35. 10
Earnings play: Considering a contrarian long on $ORCL and $ADBE into earnings. Expectations are so low, any decent news could trigger a bounce. 11
OpenAI data center strategy: Rumors of halting expansion are inaccurate. OpenAI is simply prioritizing Vera Rubin clusters over Blackwell clusters for scaling. 12