🌍 Geopolitics & Macro Strategy

  • Trump-Xi meeting on March 31st, coinciding with Q1 window dressing, warrants attention. 引用[1]
  • Hamenenei’s death implies future geopolitical escalation, with more hawkish leadership potentially taking command in Iran. 引用[3]
  • The world is shifting from a rules-based to a power-based order. Geopolitical conflicts will intensify, leading to individual risks like bank closures and payment system disruption. 引用[5]
  • Iran’s post-Hamenenei power structure separates administrative roles from strategic control. The IRGC and radical new commander Vahidi hold true power over military and national security. 引用[12]

⚡ Energy Sector Dynamics

  • Energy’s current trajectory is a structural shift, not merely geopolitical. Decades of funneling capital into resource-consuming businesses while starving producers has created this dynamic. 引用[2]
  • AI infrastructure is sparking an off-grid energy revolution. Hyperscalers are bypassing grid bottlenecks with behind-the-meter power, favoring co-location with dedicated energy sources where the grid fails to meet AI demand. 引用[6]

🚗 Robotics & Automotive Tech

  • Tesla Semi is nearing mass production, evidenced by ongoing winter testing. 引用[4]
  • Cybertruck’s market success will ultimately pivot on its pricing strategy. 引用[7]
  • Robotics is integrating across sectors; NVIDIA is the infrastructure layer, with its Isaac Sim training Tesla Optimus and Boston Dynamics Atlas robots virtually before physical deployment. 引用[11]

📈 Market Insights & Flow

  • Record outflows in $QQQ over the past 2 months have surpassed those seen at the 2022 bear market bottom, signaling a significant shift in sentiment. 引用[9]
  • $VIX spikes since the GFC (17 instances) consistently faded to ~20 or lower in the same year, with 13 of those dropping to ~15 or lower. The current spike since April 2025 warrants this historical perspective. 引用[13]

💰 Investment Plays

  • Companies showing strong earnings cycles include $PLTR, $AAOI, $TSM, $SNDK, $LITE, $META, $GOOGL, $FSLY, $AXON, and $SOFI. 引用[8]
  • My core holdings, reflecting high conviction, are $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, and $HOOD. 引用[10]