Expectations are set for $VIX and $SPY in March. 3
$SPX has seen a 12-month streak without a monthly decline greater than 1%, marking the longest run since 2017-2018. 4
A super parabolic spike in $VIX to 40-60+ (similar to August’s “Yenmaggedon”) would indicate a major market event. 9
The current $VIX is 29.49. Historically, 20% of months saw the VIX higher intramonthly, and 7% closed higher. 10
Market stress is surging: the spread between average 9-month volatility of S&P 500 stocks and the index’s 9-month volatility is at 18 points, the highest since 2008, having doubled in 2 years, flagging widespread sector stress. 12
For non-career traders, buying $QQQ is a solid path to consistently beat the Nasdaq-100 year-over-year. 14
$QQQ has historically touched or traded below its 200-day moving average in 23 of the last 25 years (92%), suggesting a high probability of this happening again, being less than 2% away. 16
A VIX reading above 30, as observed in November and April 2025, historically signals strong market rallies. This is a batched accumulation signal, not a liquidation trigger. 21
Historically, US equities average gains in the 12 months following a war. Market risks are already priced in; positive news could ignite a rally. With VIX at 30, it’s a time to begin batched accumulation. 27
Always average in; avoid going “all-in” given the unpredictability of market tops and bottoms. 28
Modern defense spending is pivoting towards drones, software, communications, and the scaling industrial base. 8
AI investment is fundamentally different from the “LeTV 2.0 + dot-com bubble.” Today’s AI leaders like Microsoft, Google, Amazon boast real revenues and strong free cash flows, unlike the speculative companies of the past. 11
Key themes identified include stagflation (triggered by -92K jobs print, leaving the Fed stuck), and specific earnings insights for $AVGO (targeting $100B AI revenue by 2027, supply chain locked through 2028) and $MRVL. 13
The US manufacturing sector remains notably weak: ISM Manufacturing PMI Index fell -0.3 points to 47.9 in December (lowest since October 2024), marking the 10th consecutive monthly contraction, with only 11% of industries reporting growth. 17
$NVO offers more stability and reasonable valuation compared to $HIMS, which presents higher growth potential but increased uncertainty. 22
Weakness is evident in the US tech loan market, with prices dropping -5% year-to-date to 90 cents (steepest decline since the 2022 bear market). European tech loans also saw a -5% fall to 89 cents, a 2-year low. 29