📈 Market Technicals & Volatility

$SPX new lows without $VIX new highs suggests reflexive selling is exhausted; closely watching SPX vs Oil for correlated behavior and key Put Walls / Vol Trigger zones. 1
A close above $600 for $QQQ would be highly constructive for bulls. 17
The VIX 16 rule suggests a daily 1.8% move on the S&P 500 when $VIX is at 30. 5
$VIX broke 30 for the first time since last April. Historically, $SPX gained within 1 week to 1 month in 11 of 12 cases after similar $VIX spikes. 6
$SPX at 6,636 today is not the absolute low for 2026; a -5.3% ATH to trough drawdown is insufficient. Expect an 8-12% ATH to trough drawdown at some point. 24
$AVGO back-tested its gap and broke out of its base, now holding above the 50ma daily at $343.50, with $345 and the 100ma as next resistance levels. 4
$SNDK displays a strong daily chart in a red market, supported by its 50ma and forming a bullish engulfing pattern. 7
$SLV is struggling to break above its 50-day moving average. 26

🌍 Macro Economy & Recession Signals

Recession risk is rising, unexpected by the market, driven by recent employment trends and the oil price spike. February job losses, even with one-time effects, signify a broader trend of weakening YoY job growth. 2

$EWY (Korean stock market ETF) is a speculative play for the month, potentially driven by similarities to other market dynamics. 14
Experiencing the decay of theta and vega (“burning”) when writing options in an extraordinarily high $VIX environment is a rewarding feeling. 21
Market sentiment briefly touched “Extreme Fear” today. 28
Maintaining cash reserves and appropriate position sizing are crucial for long-term trading, aiding emotional control, enabling averaging down on high-conviction ideas, and dispelling the “must work now” mentality. 30

SpaceX Starship and Artemis II SLS appear to be from different eras, with Starship embodying a significantly more advanced design. 22