🚀 Market Trends & Sentiment

  • BTFD signals are hitting, primarily volume-driven, not breadth-driven, requiring position sizing consideration. 1
  • The expected “destruction” for $QQQ didn’t materialize. 3
  • Despite prevailing negative sentiment, $QQQ is back to $600, suggesting a perplexing market dynamic. 4
  • $QQQ is back in the green; leadership from the Q’s is preferred. 8
  • $VIX is approaching a -30% crush from its peak to trough. 9
  • Bears are capitulating as the market shrugs off macro fears. 13
  • I’m seeing a textbook breakout retest, expecting $IWM to hit $300 this year. 16

🛢️ Energy & Commodities Insight

  • $USO could reverse its gains, currently up 4%. 2
  • $USO recorded its 3rd highest daily volume ever, a phenomenon previously seen when oil prices turned negative. Extreme volumes often signal troughs or peaks. 7

🏦 Macro & Crypto Link

  • US bank reserves are back above $3 trillion, indicating a sufficient but not yet excessive level. The trend shows a strong correlation between bank reserve changes and Bitcoin’s (“大饼”) price movements. 10

📊 Technical Plays

  • $WDC daily chart shows a back test to its 50-day moving average and a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. 5
  • For $SNOW, I see a potential move past $185, then $188ish, targeting a small overhead gap. After a choppy period, I’m now green on the trade. 12
  • $GOOGL shows a bullish engulfing pattern today, but I’ll need confirmation tomorrow. A move above $304-$305 is my next target. 14

🎯 Trading Strategy & Experience

  • Sold $AVGO for a good percentage gain, establishing a comfortable position. 6
  • I’m holding a small oil short, with large calls on $LUV and $DAL. I expect $CL to retest the 0.5 Fibonacci level or near $120 before a hard failure, which would be my cue to add a significant short position. 15

⚙️ Industry & Corporate Insight

  • Ondas integrating Mistral Inc. is a long-term play for better vertical integration, enhancing their capability to apply autonomous air-ground systems to US defense programs. 11
  • This announcement signals the rebuilding of the US nuclear energy supply chain. A key bottleneck for SMR/advanced reactor development is fuel supply, specifically HALEU, which many companies like TerraPower, X-energy, Oklo, Kairos, and BWXT reactors need. Without fuel, reactors cannot be built. 17