📈 Market Outlook & Macro Trends

  • Critique of the unfulfilled SPX 7000 forecast for mid-2025, initially called in Dec 2024, highlighting it as highly questionable 1.
  • S&P is still targeting 7000-7100, with controlled downside expected later into Spring or early Summer, following a flush to 6600 and a swift recovery towards 6800 11.
  • Ahead of CPI day, market participants are on hold, showing neither conviction long nor short 9.

geopolitics 🌍 & Supply Chain Risks

  • Iran retains asymmetric capabilities with drones, missiles, and artillery to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting these random attacks may persist for an extended period 5.
  • Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is severely compromised, with neither GPS nor Beidou functional; merchant vessels reportedly rely on radar and landmark positioning, hugging the UAE coast and Omani waters to transit 22.
  • Releasing strategic oil reserves without clear commitment from the US/Israel to de-escalate is market suicide; reserves are a finite last resort. Deployment should only occur when a ceasefire path is defined and supply recovery is foreseeable. Otherwise, let prices hit $120 23.

💡 Tech & Semiconductors Deep Dive

  • $FICO faces increasing displacement risk from alternatives like VantageScore for its zero-margin scoring systems, pending crucial FHFA guidance 2.
  • AeroVironment #AVAV: Post-acquisition issues related to Blue Halo and goodwill require closer scrutiny 3.
  • Oracle #ORCL: The CEO’s Q3 earnings call reveals immense ambitions, signaling a challenging yet aggressive growth trajectory ahead 14.
  • AI is fundamentally infrastructure, not merely “smart apps” or isolated models, akin to foundational technologies like electricity or the internet 10.
  • Speculation mounts that NVIDIA will unveil an x86 CPU developed in collaboration with Intel at GTC 2026 24.
  • Queries arise regarding AI6’s role in Grok inference and its implications for xAI’s dedicated ASIC development 27.

💰 Financial Markets & Credit Insights

  • JPMorgan’s markdowns on software-related private credit loans underscore deep-seated issues of loan fungibility and illiquidity within the private credit market, raising critical questions about current valuation practices 28.