🌍 Macro Outlook & Geopolitical Risk

🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (the “Canadian peso”) poised for outperformance as a commodity currency, defying its current heavily shorted status. 1
Geopolitical tensions signal potential for oil hitting $200/bbl as reciprocal hit policies cease, with continuous strikes expected; the US likely can’t control prices with artificial measures. 2
US February CPI data shows overall stable inflation, yet a brewing undercurrent in energy prices. 3
Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz will likely halt insurance coverage for transiting vessels, severely impacting shipping. 4

🤖 AI Investment & Sector Insight

For AI investments, prioritize the “hardware + raw materials” layer within the “end-to-end AI supply chain” for durable and high-certainty returns, as these components profit regardless of specific AI winners. 5
NVIDIA’s $2 billion investment in NBIS signifies a major strategic move, deepening ties and aiming to deploy over 5GW of NVIDIA AI systems by 2030 across the full AI stack. 6

Heavy shorting in a sustained US stock bull market is gambling; the error tolerance is minimal. 7
A VIX reading above 30 signals a prime entry point for phased accumulation, a contrarian approach to current sentiment. 8
Took defensive action by cutting positions in $LITE, $COHR, and $GLW, while hedging with $CRDO, anticipating potential market FUD from Citrini. 9

Successfully identified the exact bottom for $CIEN, $COHR, and $LITE, forecasting robust demand for pluggable/CPO solutions. 10
$RDDT is positioned closer to a market bottom than a top; recommend selling puts. 11
Bill Ackman’s repeated susceptibility to “AI slop” and “fake engagement posts” on X casts doubt on his credibility for his upcoming IPO; a professional social media team is a must. 12