geopolitics & macroeconomic impact 🌐

  • $PLTR’s ~240 P/E valuation carries significant risk, as its premium largely rides on defense sentiment. Should the Iran conflict de-escalate, this valuation becomes a “math problem” rather than a bear call. 1
  • Prolonged high oil prices will inevitably reveal their full economic impact. This pressure could compel a quicker resolution to geopolitical tensions, as no political leader desires an even hotter inflation landscape. 9

market sentiment & technicals 📊

  • $SPX Daily and Weekly Bollinger Bands are tightening to their most narrow in 8 years, signaling a breakout move is imminent. Something has to give. 13
  • Bearish sentiment is building among hedge funds; short positions in US macro products (index futures, ETFs) have surged to 11% of total US exposure. This marks the highest level since the 2022 bear market, reflecting a +4 point increase since September 2024. 29
  • The market adage “Stairs up - elevator down” reinforces the need to stay nimble. 20
  • Trader behavior often shows a pattern: buying puts at market bottoms and calls at tops. This indicates following the herd rather than independent analysis, potentially missing scalping opportunities in volatile markets. 24

trading strategy & market observations 🧠

  • My disciplined process involves maintaining a dynamic scroll list, rapidly identifying potential trades, performing extensive homework, and then formalizing a trade plan with set alerts. 2
  • $ALAB caught my attention from the homework list, indicating a potential trade opportunity within my established methodology. 3
  • The $DOCN setup proved profitable, delivering a +26% bounce even in a tough market tape. 4
  • A straightforward options strategy is to buy calls at market bottoms and puts at market tops. 6
  • $APLD shows follow-through today, with price above the 10-day EMA. The next targets are the 21-day and 100-day moving averages. 8
  • For $RKLB, when conviction wavers, it’s beneficial to assess its performance on a larger timeframe. 10
  • For $AXP, a move above the 10-day EMA is a key trigger to watch for the next price level. 14
  • $HIMS exhibited strong bullish control; a 100% bounce occurred from its monthly support at $15, establishing new support at $24. 18
  • Exercise caution with $HIMS: it’s currently overbought with a 70 RSI and faces minor resistance at $28. After a rapid 100% surge in recent weeks, a healthy pullback would be ideal before adding fresh capital. 19
  • On $HIMS, I’ve taken partial profits (“paydays”) but maintain a core swing position with protective stops, ensuring no gains turn into losses. 22

corporate & sector insights 💡

  • ONDS officially completed its acquisition of Israeli military defense firm BIRD Aerosystems on March 11, 2026. The deal’s cost includes an initial payment of approximately $5.17 million in cash and 6.93 million shares of ONDS, valuing the stock portion at nearly $70 million based on yesterday’s ~$10 closing price. 25
  • $META stands out as the sole Maggy 7 stock currently trading positive year-to-date. 26
  • $NBIS is notably highly shorted, with over 20% of its shares held by short sellers. 27
  • $NVDA’s strategy with NemoClaw suggests a pivot beyond just silicon-level competition. Jensen appears to be fostering broader ecosystem adoption across diverse chips. 28
  • The enterprise AI market opportunity remains vast because while AI empowers workers, corporate structures largely lag, still operating on pre-AI paradigms. This discrepancy creates significant growth potential. 30