$SPX is on track for its weakest month in 12 months, down -1.66% MTD, though this is seen as “barely a dent.” 1
Feeling a bit “degen” (aggressive/risky) on the long side for $PATH earnings today. 2
$NBIS saw a breakout, hitting the 115 target, with next targets at 135 then 174; anticipates a “hated” rally. 3
$PATH price action, touching $13.02 and up 2% after hours, suggests it was likely “front runned” during the end-of-day trading, seeing a 5% pop. 4
$ONDS delaying its earnings report to the 25th, coupled with two recent acquisitions, suggests strategic and supply chain integration; however, significant stock dilution is certain, with Shares Outstanding expected to increase by over 30% in Q1 2026. Management’s bet appears to be a 3x revenue growth post-acquisition justifying the dilution. 5
Bond traders appear to be discounting rate cut expectations, evidenced by the 10yr bond yield hitting a monthly high of 4.20%. 6
Geopolitical shocks consistently trigger oil spikes, and the current U.S.-Iran tensions fit historical patterns; markets often underestimate the longevity and scale of such supply disruptions over the last 35 years. 7
The recent rally in $XLE and $CVX signals that capital is now pricing in a longer-than-expected Strait closure, contrasting with the usual “sell the news” dynamic where oil spikes initially pull back on expectations of a swift resolution. 8
Energy stocks are not a short-term trend; many investors underestimate the long-term potential. Most oil companies are generating near-historical high free cash flow with WTI above $80, indicating this is likely an early-stage, sustained rally. 9
Iran’s rapidly shifting stance from threats to issuing ceasefire terms suggests a calculated geopolitical maneuver, possibly described as K.E.B.A.B. (Keeps Everyone Begging After Bluffs). 10
A recent Futura poll indicates Bolsonaro would defeat Lula in Brazil’s 2026 election, reinforcing a broader trend across South America towards pro-business leadership and a shift from left to right. 11
Expect inflation concerns to resurface within the next month, a difficult reality to accept in the current market. 12
$AMZN CEO Jassy’s $200B AI commitment faces skepticism after an internal AI tool took a service offline for 6 hours, with 1,500 engineers reportedly warning leadership beforehand; raises questions if Jassy is a true successor or a placeholder. 13
Energy Fuels ($UUUU) CEO Mark Chalmers is building the final piece of a “non-red supply chain,” a strategic move highlighted at the start of a document. 14