📈 Market Structure & Technicals

  • NYSE Oscillator extremely oversold, flashing imminent violent rallies. This pattern consistently predicted strong green closes following deep red sessions in Apr 2025, Dec 2024, Apr 2024, Aug 2023, Mar 2023, and Sept 2022. Expect this for $SPY and $QQQ 1.
  • $SPY candlestick is outside the lower Bollinger Bands, with NYMO at April 2025 lows. A short-term bounce is setting up; futures are showing promise 3.
  • $AXTI shows signs of exhaustion with MACD/RSI divergences, despite recent Relative Strength. A short setup for a pullback play looks viable for tomorrow and early next week 4.
  • $LULU hit multi-year lows, now nearing Covid lows. $ADBE is below Covid lows, near April 2019 levels. Noted Michael Burry was bullish on these names 6.
  • $JPM on track for its 7th consecutive day below the 200dma, a streak not seen since Oct 2022 lows. Financials need their leader to step up for a sector bounce 7.
  • $GDX has unwound to January 14th levels, while $GLD holds a 10% premium from that date. This divergence implies gold miners could be a leading indicator for the yellow metal itself 8.

💰 Crypto Markets

  • Bitcoin holds the line. $60k presents strong support for $BTC.X 2.
  • Recalling the 312 market event, $BTC going to zero felt genuinely possible. The lack of buy-side liquidity and cascading liquidations made a $3000 bottom seem implausible at the time 11.

🌎 Macro & Geopolitics

  • US unemployment is poised for further increases. 11% of small businesses flagged “poor sales” in February, nearing 2020 peaks, marking it the 4th most critical issue 5.
  • China’s global trade is roaring. Exports jumped +21.8% YoY (Jan-Feb 2026), hitting a 3-year high (December was +6.6%). Imports also surged +19.8% YoY 9.
  • Shift focus from spot crude ($cl1!) to #clz2026 (December crude oil futures). Long-term bets favor $cf, $cvx, $oxy, $xle as beneficiaries of potential future blockades 13.

💡 Tech & Corporate Strategy

  • xAI is aggressively poaching talent from Cursor (Andrew and Jason), signaling a clear intent for rapid scale-up in AI programming. This follows Elon Musk’s earlier engagement with Cursor’s CEO, suggesting a strategic move to fast-track xAI’s capabilities 10.
  • SpaceX’s massive IPO could force rule changes for index inclusion. Discussions are underway to allow SpaceX into major indices like S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 faster than the typical one-year post-IPO wait 12.
  • Apple is reportedly eyeing aggressive pricing for its foldable iPhone, potentially slashing the price from $2,400 to $2,000. Samsung might respond by maintaining current pricing for its next-gen Z8 series Galaxy foldables 15.

🧠 Trading Philosophy

  • An investment idea receiving widespread validation on social media likely signals a crowded trade. Such crowded positions carry elevated risk of “A-share style crashes” 14.