📈 Market Outlook & Technicals

$ETH.X holds strong support at 1900 for 12 months, staying above the trendline since 2020. First real test looms at 2700, a +22% upside from current levels, though still below the 21-week EMA. 1
$BMNR finds support at the $20 volume shelf. The next volume shelf sits at $30. Sustained crypto market strength could accelerate its ascent. 2
If $BTC decisively breaks above 75k, a push towards 85k is in play, benefiting $MSTR. 3
The S&P 500 long-term outlook appears challenging: historically, since 1950, years like this are positive only 46% of the time, averaging a -1.26% return. While short-term bounces from oversold oscillators are possible, 2026 presents a tougher picture. 4
The VIX Rule of 16 suggests that with VIX at 27 today, an approximate 1.6% expected move for the S&P 500 is implied. $SPY has already moved 1.4%. 5
The choice between a slow, grinding rise in $VIX towards 40 or a sudden spike to 40 presents different market implications. 6
An anomaly is observed: despite being within 5% of an all-time high, the $SPX McClellan Oscillator is extremely oversold, a setup seen only 10 times historically. 7
$SPX is 10% away from Tom Lee’s 7,300 PT with 12 trading days left in March. A 3.5% gain is needed for March to close positive. 8
$META filled its mid-January gap, now resting on a notable support trendline. This is a crucial juncture for bulls. 9

💰 Economic & Monetary Policy

US inflation in goods and services has been steadily inflecting upwards this year, preceding any oil price shock. 10
Rate cut expectations have drastically shifted in two weeks, moving from 2 cuts (as early as June) to virtually no cuts expected this year. This has led to $SPY / $QQQ repricing. Inflation remains elevated, with further pressure from the Iranian conflict and $100+ oil. 11

The US military’s deployment of Marine Expeditionary Units to the Middle East points to a potential “runaway mode.” Iran’s hardline faction, now dominant post-Khamenei, has revealed its “trump card” with stringent ceasefire conditions, presenting a quandary for Trump. 12
Western nations are realizing subsidies alone cannot counter China’s 20-year “price compression” strategy. China effectively depresses raw material prices (Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, Rare Earths) by flooding the market, causing Western projects to fail before fruition. 13
US oil prices surged, then erased losses, now back above $97/barrel. The market eyes $100/barrel, suggesting the US has lost control of the oil market without a clear timeline for the Iran war’s end. 14
Crude futures do not tell the full story; instead, one should scrutinize Dubai physical swaps versus Brent prompt futures for a clearer picture. 15

$MU is identified as a top pick, consistently breaking out and attracting monthly buying. 16
Took profit on $CRWV just shy of $8 per share, adjusting cushion to ride remaining positions. 17
$APLD positions were closed for a good payday percentage, reducing weekend risk. 18
$SNOW position closed, made decent profit, now watching for next week’s opportunities. 19
Investment philosophy hinges on role: Position traders prioritize technicals over fundamentals, while investors reverse that order. 20

Retail equity weekly purchases are down -30% since the start of the Iran war, following February’s record highs. ETF inflows also dropped -22% last week, after three months of sustained flows, signaling potential retail investor exhaustion. 21

Tesla Model YL is now available for pre-order in Australia and New Zealand, with estimated deliveries from May-June 2026. It’s offered in a single advanced AWD configuration priced at 74,900 AUD. For aesthetic and comfort reasons, the black option is recommended for its matching tail spoiler and superior NVH among all Tesla models. 22