Investment focus on AI for “slop videos” and chatbots is misplaced; breakthroughs will likely come from pouring billions into AI for curing diseases and advancing healthcare 1.
Market liquidity is collapsing. S&P 500 futures liquidity hit $5.1 million, a low not seen since April 2025. Top-of-book depth plummeted -80% YTD, sitting -61% below the ~$13 million historical average 2.
US financial funds just bled a record -$3.8 billion in outflows last week. This capitulation surpasses the April 2025 sell-off, 2022 bear market, and 2020 pandemic crash 3.
The Iran war triggered major shifts: US lifted Russian oil sanctions, oil futures surged +34.5% (a historical weekly gain), and the S&P 500 erased -$2 trillion in market cap in just 10 trading days 4.
US oil companies are set for a $60+ billion windfall this year if current oil prices hold, emerging as primary beneficiaries of the Iran war with an anticipated $5 billion in free cash flow this month alone 5.
Reports suggest Iran allowing oil passage to all but US/Israel could restore nearly 7 million barrels of oil supply PER DAY, effectively offsetting ~39% of the 18 million lost 6.
Historically, a major oil shock doesn’t spell bearishness one year out. Current dreadful sentiment and charts might signal a future buying opportunity, even if not immediately 7.
S&P 500 breadth is failing. The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average is near fifty, hinting at hidden weakness despite only a minor YTD index drop 8.
Expect S&P 500 to test 590, which implies a 15% correction and a 50% retracement. The upside target for S&P 500 over the next 2 years is $8309.
The DXY looks poised to complete a 5-wave top near 100.5. Should it correct, gold and silver are coiled for their next leg up 10.
Seasonality shifts from bullish in February to bearish soon, suggesting current market news flow will likely ease 11.
A high VIX, especially above 35 or 50, is a powerful indicator for stellar future stock returns 12.
Goldman Sachs delivered contradictory market calls within 3 days: first an “Extreme Rally,” then a 6% decline forecast. Which call do we trust? 13.
The Magnificent 7 are showing a stark reversal. After consistent green years (2019-2021, 2023-2025), 2026 currently sees all 7 trading in the red. A wild shift 14.