Oil Markets: Prices are highly sensitive to the Strait of Hormuz situation. While $110/bbl (Q2) and $90/bbl (Q3) were once projected, U.S. intervention to allow tankers through has triggered a sell-off to below $97/bbl 1, 22.
Interest Rates: Markets have completely priced out a March rate cut; even June is off the table due to geopolitical tension. The current baseline is a single cut in September. Any incremental cut beyond this will be a massive sentiment catalyst 36.
Federal Reserve: Powell’s legal posturing suggests he may remain on the Board of Governors until 2028 if he completes his term as Chair, effectively creating a “shadow chair” scenario under the current administration 14.
Nebius ($NBIS): The $27B infrastructure deal with Meta (including $12B capacity and $15B compute commitment) validates the “neocloud” thesis. Despite the ~14% jump, volatility remains high—buying pullbacks is superior to chasing FOMO 7, 10, 13.
Valuation Plays: Based on historical P/E multiples, Microsoft (33x P/E) is projected at $550/share, and Meta (26x P/E) at $785/share by year-end, representing significant upside 4.
Volatility Strategy: When the VIX exceeds 30, it historically serves as an optimal window for scale-in long-term positioning, despite being the peak moment of retail capitulation 35.
Crypto: $BTC retesting $74k resistance for the 5th time in 13 days increases the probability of an imminent breakout rather than a rejection 5.