📈 Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure

  • Micron Technology ($MU): CEO emphasizes that Non-HBM DRAM profit margins currently exceed HBM. Significant supply expansion is not expected until 2028 due to long-cycle facility construction, ensuring a prolonged supply-demand gap. 5
  • Tesla ($TSLA) Terafab: The launch aims to bridge a massive supply shortfall, as current global wafer production meets only 2% of the 1 Terawatt compute demand envisioned by Musk. 28
  • AI Semis Operating Margins: $NVDA and $TSM lead the sector with margins exceeding 50%, while $MU, $ANET, $KLAC, and $AVGO maintain elite status at 40–49%. 14

📊 Macro & Market Sentiment

  • Investor Sentiment: Bearish sentiment hit 52.0% in the week ending March 19th, the highest level since May 2025, marking a sharp +23 percentage point rise. 17
  • Gold ($GLD): Nearing major support with an RSI below 30, marking the worst streak in 2.5 years (down 8 days straight). The setup is historically rare, with the last two candles closing outside the lower Bollinger Bands. 18
  • S&P 500 ($SPX): Set to end March down over 1%, breaking a 12-month streak of positive monthly closes, the longest such run since 2017. 25

🛡️ Geopolitical Impact

  • Defense Tech: The cost-effectiveness of intercepting threats is shifting; against Shahed drones (costing $35,000), the $4M Patriot missile is inefficient. AI-assisted interceptors like Ukraine’s “Sting” drone, costing only $1,800, represent the new strategic solution. 30

🧠 Valuation Methodology

  • Valuation Metrics: Relying solely on DCF models is problematic due to high subjectivity; Forward PEG (using 3-year average consensus EPS growth) remains a superior, more actionable indicator for comparing growth stocks. 21