The 10Y Note Yield has surged ~45 basis points since the conflict began in February, signaling that bond markets are now the primary arbiter of geopolitical pressure in the Iran War 2.
Oil and gold volatility, including a -5% drop in gold (down $1.5 trillion in market cap in 3 hours), highlights extreme market fragility. Geopolitical escalation remains the path of least resistance, with no signs of de-escalation 6, 13.
Nasdaq is entering a medium-level correction; the weekly EMA5 crossing below the EMA20 in early March serves as a key technical indicator of weakening momentum 9.
TSMC expansion projects in the US, Japan, and Germany are projected to account for 20% of total production by 2028. Demand from NVDA, AAPL, AMD, and QCOM is so intense that Arizona’s Fab 4 is fully booked pre-construction 4, 8.
Nvidia’s Vera Rubin (VR) platform is driving a supply-chain bottleneck; demand for AI server cabinets has tripled, with backlogs extending into 2027 due to the requirement for 2-3 extra “sidecar” cabinets per unit 16.
South Korea’s semiconductor exports reached a record US$18.7 billion (+163.9%) for March 1-20, underscoring the relentless global appetite for AI-linked compute 24.
Disparity in AI compute: In cluster inference efficiency, Nvidia chips outperform Huawei counterparts by at least 10-20x when accounting for model-level integration 21.
Microsoft ($MSFT): The ultimate defensive play with a forward PE of 23x (22%-26% below historical average). With $625B in RPO and 39% Azure growth, it offers reliable growth rather than aggressive alpha 17.
Amazon ($AMZN): Capital expenditures are pressuring free cash flow, but AWS remains the primary profit engine. With a projected 2028 forward PE of ~18x and $244B in backlog, it acts as a long-term option on future profitability 18.
Alphabet ($GOOGL): Possesses the widest moat and cleanest balance sheet among the Magnificent Seven. Despite strong fundamentals (16.7% search growth), current pricing is stretched, offering lower upside for new capital allocations 19.