$GOLD has officially entered a bear market, plunging -22% from its record high, erasing approximately $8.5 trillion in market cap—equivalent to two $NVDA market caps. 519
The sell-off in gold is likely pricing in an extremely tight monetary policy rather than simple liquidation, as gold is leading the downside relative to equities. 12
$GDX is facing a critical 200-day moving average test, having dropped -35% from ATHs in just 3 weeks, with daily RSI approaching the most oversold levels since the Covid lows. 15
The Strait of Hormuz closure remains the primary driver of global recession fears. Higher reliance on these shipping lanes is causing extreme market panic in Asian markets, particularly South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. 2024
Rising energy costs and AI capex remain the core fundamental pillars for the lithium supply chain, which currently lacks narrative alignment despite being a primary beneficiary. 18
Bond yields are under pressure with the 10-year reaching 4.4%, while US 1-year inflation expectations have climbed to 5.2%. 20
The 50-week SMA for $SPX and $SPY is currently the pivot line defining the distinction between a healthy dip and a deep structural correction. 9
Market activity is at peak levels, with $SPY trading volume hitting $1.4 billion on Friday—the highest daily total in 2026 and the 5th highest in the last 2.5 years. 13