📉 Market Strategy & Volatility

  • Trump Put Identified: A ~10% correction in index levels appears to be the current support threshold for the “Trump put.” 2036046795701428389
  • Index RSI Dynamics: When indices like $SPY, $QQQ, $DIA, and $IWM hit sub-30 Daily RSI, shorting becomes highly risky; keep positions nimble if maintaining short exposure. 2036026064385053053
  • VIX Volatility: Experienced a sharp -35% drop, moving from 31 to 20, reflecting immediate market reaction to geopolitical de-escalation rumors. 2036043924062794010

📊 Commodity & Macro Analysis

  • Gold Positioning: $GOLD needs to hold the $4,000 support level; the sentiment cycle has transitioned from “Thrill” (Dec 2025) to “Anxiety” (March 2026). 2036022348382662809, 2036035764967047215
  • Rate Hikes: Expectations for 2026 rate hikes by Fed, ECB, and BoE have shifted significantly in just 3 weeks, invalidating many prior macro models. 2036028263135355386

🏢 Tech & Fundamentals

  • Tesla ($TSLA) Valuation: Comparing current pricing to 4-year-old levels is a logic error; the company’s fundamentals have shifted from PPT-stage concepts (FSD/Robotaxi) to real-world revenue generation. 2036049405736779956
  • Amazon ($AMZN) Moat: AWS is the primary profit engine, contributing ~50% of operating profits despite being only 16.7% of revenue. Short-term free cash flow is pressured by $200B in CAPEX, but forward PE is attractive at ~18x for 2028. 2036049454835372536
  • Google (Search): Search revenue grew 16.7% in Q4 despite fears of AI disruption; however, current pricing is fully valued, with neutral target prices trending below current market quotes. 2036049585647337695