🧠 AI Infrastructure & Hardware Analysis

  • SK Hynix is scaling up, ordering ~$8B of ASML EUV tools—the largest order in history—to fuel next-gen HBM and DRAM production through 2027. 3
  • The GPU depreciation narrative is flawed. Contract durations average ~5 years, and older GPUs retain significant utility as new AI use cases emerge. 1
  • Nebius is positioned as a specialized cloud infra play for GPU-intensive AI workloads rather than a generic cloud provider, justifying its $150 target. 13

📊 Corporate & Valuation

  • Mizuho pushes back on the Muddy Waters short report against SOFI: The $312M JPM transaction is a verified “true sale” rather than hidden debt, and the 3.9% discount rate aligns with standard ~4-year loan durations. 7, 25
  • GRAB plans to repurchase up to $400M in shares over the next four months, representing 80% of its $500M buyback authorization. 9

📈 Macro & Market Strategy

  • Market structure is showing a breakdown, trading below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMA. 6
  • Manufacturing PMI at 52.4 (vs 51.3 est.) suggests recession fears were overblown and the bear case has likely peaked. 19
  • SPY setup: Must reclaim $652 to trigger a move to $670-$675; failure to hold $652 opens the door for a drop to $643.33. 10
  • Energy sector remains strong, evidenced by a wave of 52-week highs in names like XLE, COP, XOM, CVX, and EOG. 18
  • Asian markets face severe exposure to an Iran-driven energy shock, with the Philippines (~95%) and Vietnam (~90%) heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude. 24