Large speculators are currently extremely net-long Bitcoin. This level of extreme positioning is a direct mirror of the setup seen in 2023 right before the massive rally. 1
The market regime for Gold has fundamentally shifted. Following the surge in commodities, we are now entering a textbook 1970s playbook: an energy spike triggers inflation, leaving the Fed trapped as growth slows toward a recession. 34
Bond markets are aggressively repricing. The 1-year breakeven inflation rate has surged above 5% for the first time since 2022, signaling that the market expect higher-for-longer pressures. 7
With 10-year yields and oil prices materially higher, the Fed has zero room left to tighten conditions effectively, despite the growing deficits. 815
The valuation gap is at an extreme: Tech is flirting with 2000-era bubble highs while Energy and Materials are languishing at historic lows. This setup usually precedes a violent rotation. 5
Fundamental metrics are the only hedge against panic. Investors who ignore PE and EPS in favor of “narratives” are the first to be washed out during volatility. 17
$MELI serves as a warning on multiple compression. Despite a 627% revenue explosion over 5 years, the stock only gained 5% as the market aggressively deflated its valuation multiple. 25
Stop trying to catch the falling knife. The key signals to get heavily involved again are a clear basing pattern combined with significant volume expansion. 10
Differentiate between a bounce and a confirmed bottom. A true trend reversal requires two technical triggers: breaking the downtrend channel and reclaiming the 21EMA. 12
Systemic leverage is compounding. Banks have tripled lending to private equity/credit to over $300 billion since 2018, creating a dangerous “leverage-on-leverage” environment for high-yield funds. 21