📊 Macro Strategy & Market Sentiment

  • I expect a shift from the current deficit regime toward what I call “Massive Magnificent Deficits.” 1
  • This pullback is a necessary reset. When everyone is already invested and bullish, there are no buyers left. These fear-driven pullbacks create new entry points in a macro bull market, and I am confident we haven’t reached the top of the AI bull cycle yet. 5
  • Markets price in the future while the economy reflects the past. The current price action is simply the market front-running future expectations, similar to how it typically recovers before a recession actually ends. 9
  • We have navigated through the volatility blowout and breadth triggers; we are now likely entering the phase of clearing positioning and sentiment hurdles. 23
  • Public interest in geopolitical risks, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, is spiking in a way that resembles penny stock search patterns. 18

📉 Technical Analysis & Support Levels

  • I am watching the S&P 500 support closely at 6000-6100. If that fails, the ultimate bottom level sits at 5900. 15
  • The market has gone 14 trading days without a single day where stocks closed higher than they opened—a streak that exceeds what we saw during the 2025 tariffs, the 2022 bear market, and even the Global Financial Crisis. 13
  • History suggests that red years for the SPX are extremely rare, occurring only twice since 1941 (1973-1974 and 2000-2002). On average, the total return following a red year is a staggering +25.8%. 27

₿ Crypto & Blockchain Insights

  • Old-school on-chain models indicate a BTC bottom is likely between 46k-54k. Capital has been exiting Bitcoin since November, though the CVDD Floor Model—which climbs over time—currently sits at 45.5k. 6

đź’» Semiconductors & Tech Innovation

  • The correction in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (down 3.9% and 5.6% respectively) stems from D5 16G spot prices peaking on March 19. 22
  • Tesla appears to be phasing out safety drivers for its Robotaxi service. Real-world tests show empty vehicles successfully completing 2.5-mile trips for a $6.5 fare, despite trackers still indicating the presence of a safety driver. 26

đź“‹ Sector Watchlist

  • I’m keeping $FNMA (Fannie Mae) and $FMCC (Freddie Mac) on the radar for potential plays. 24