🌎 Macro & Geopolitics

  • Expect a shift from “Big Beautiful Deficits” to “Massive Magnificent Deficits” as fiscal discipline vanishes. 1
  • Trump’s weekend silence is a red flag. No bond market comments or strike updates suggest escalation risks are peaking while the market is eerily quiet. 2
  • The logistical reality of a ground operation in Iran is a nightmare. Holding a country of 93 million people with only 50,000 troops is a massive risk. 16
  • Retail panic is showing in search data. “Strait of Hormuz” interest on Google Trends is behaving like a pump-and-dump penny stock. 18

📊 Market Technicals & Sentiment

  • The market is a forward-looking machine. It prices in the future, which is why it usually tanks before a recession and rips before the recovery starts. 9
  • Market sentiment is overextended. When everyone is already long and bullish, there’s no one left to buy. This fear-driven pullback is a necessary reset for the AI bull cycle. 5
  • We just hit a 14-day streak without a single green close (close > open). This is an extreme statistical anomaly, more severe than the 2025 tariffs, 2020 Covid, or even the 2008 GFC. 13
  • Watching S&P 500 support at 6000-6100. If that breaks, the ultimate capitulation bottom is at 5900. 15
  • Don’t ignore the “Heisenberg Stat”: Since 1941, the $SPX has only had two consecutive red years. The average return after a red year is +25.8%. If 2026 ends red, 2027 is a massive buy. 27
  • The current market phase is transitioning from a volatility blowout to testing positioning and sentiment hurdles. 23

đź’» Tech & AI Industry

  • Tesla is stealthily scaling its Robotaxi fleet. Recent tracking shows safety drivers are being removed entirely. Current pricing is roughly $6.5 for a 2.5-mile trip. 26
  • Speculation is mounting that Claude Mythos is outperforming because it was trained on the Blackwell architecture. 14
  • Memory stocks like Samsung and SK Hynix are correcting because spot prices for D5 16G peaked on March 19. 22

🪙 Crypto & Alpha Picks

  • On-chain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. The CVDD Floor Model is currently climbing at 45.5k. Capital has been exiting since November. 6
  • Keep $FNMA and $FMCC on the watchlist; these are classic Bill Ackman-style plays for the “normies.” 24