📊 Equity & Macro Strategy

  • $SPX historical data shows only two consecutive red years since 1941. After a red year, the average total return hits +25.8%. If 2026 ends red, prepare for a massive 2027. 27
  • S&P 500 is 8% off highs with strong support at 6000-6100. The ultimate bottom level is pegged at 5900. Current market action is simply pricing in the future. 15 9
  • This isn’t the top of the AI macro bull cycle. Fear-driven pullbacks are required to reset sentiment and create new buyers when everyone is already positioned bullish. 5
  • Keep $FNMA and $FMCC on the watchlist for potential plays. 24
  • The market sequence is evolving from a Vol Blow Out and Breadth Triggers into Positioning and Sentiment hurdles. 23

â‚¿ Crypto Market Outlook

  • On-chain models suggest a BTC bottom between $46k-$54k. The CVDD Floor Model currently sits at $45.5k. Capital has been steadily exiting the asset since November. 6

🤖 Tech & Semiconductors

  • Memory stocks like Samsung and SK Hynix are seeing a correction because D5 16G spot prices peaked on March 19. 22
  • Tesla is likely phasing out safety drivers. Observed an uncrewed Robotaxi completing a 2.5-mile trip in 9 minutes for a $6.5 fare. 26
  • High performance in Claude Mythos is sparking speculation that it may be the first major model trained on Blackwell architecture. 14